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Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion!
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types:
LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments.
Team,
We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED.
The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there.
Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range).
Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too!
Now let us get into it:
Leadership I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left.
Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company?
Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense.
It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job.
In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below.
SPACE Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the
new space race.
In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget.
Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B.
Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel.
LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO) The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages.
There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO.
SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG) The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector.
The top 6 holdings of ITA are:
Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46%
Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84%
Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62%
General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78%
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74%
Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64%
As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress.
Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending.
Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side.
Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog.
Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63.
General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT.
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129.
Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog.
The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more.
FREE CASH FLOW Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow.
HEADWINDS New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block.
Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets.
Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic).
TAILWINDS Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins?
International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority.
5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract.
TRADE IDEAS Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway.
Share price today: $321.82
Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean)
Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26
Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot).
LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy.
LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat.
SOURCES https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/ https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/ https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/ https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988 https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646 https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/ https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a 2 Parts here, second is down below. And you probably wont believe it or you already know about it and this proves it.
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Last updated, December 2020
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Content that depicts or promotes drugs, drug consumption, or encourages others to make, use, or trade drugs or other controlled substances Content that offers the purchase, sale, trade, or solicitation of drugs or other controlled substances, alcohol or tobacco products (including vaping products) Content that provides information on how to buy illegal or controlled substances Content that depicts or promotes the making of illicit alcohol products Content that depicts or promotes the misuse of legal substances, or instruction on how to make homemade substances, in an effort to become intoxicated Frauds and scams
We do not permit anyone to exploit our platform to take advantage of the trust of users and bring about financial or personal harm. We remove content that deceives people in order to gain an unlawful financial or personal advantage, including schemes to defraud individuals or steal assets.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that depicts or promotes phishing Content that depicts or promotes Ponzi, multi-level marketing, or pyramid schemes Content that depicts or promotes investment schemes with promise of high returns, fixed betting, or any other types of scams Gambling
We do not allow content promoting gambling services, or that could be perceived as advertising for casinos, sports betting, or any other commercial gambling activity.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that promotes casinos, sports betting, poker, lotteries, gambling-related software and apps, or other gambling services Privacy, personal data, and personally identifiable information (PII)
We do not allow content that violates the confidentiality of personal data or personally identifiable information (e.g., social security information). We remove content that depicts personal data or personally identifiable information (PII) from the platform.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that contains personal data or personally identifiable information (PII)
Violent and graphic content
TikTok is a platform that celebrates creativity but not shock-value or violence. We do not allow content that is gratuitously shocking, graphic, sadistic, or gruesome or that promotes, normalizes, or glorifies extreme violence or suffering on our platform. When there is a threat to public safety, we suspend or ban the account and, when warranted, we will report it to relevant legal authorities.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content of humans that depicts: violent or graphic deaths or accidents dismembered, mutilated, charred, or burned human remains gore in which an open wound or injury is the core focus real-world physical violence, fighting, or torture Content of animals that depicts: the slaughter or other non-natural death of animals dismembered, mutilated, charred, or burned animal remains animal cruelty and gore
Suicide, self-harm, and dangerous acts
We care deeply about the health and well-being of the individuals that make up our community. We do not allow content depicting, promoting, normalizing, or glorifying activities that could lead to suicide, self-harm, or eating disorders. We also do not permit users to share content depicting them partaking in, or encouraging others to partake in, dangerous activities that may lead to serious injury or death.
However, we do support members of our community sharing their personal experiences with these issues in a safe way to raise awareness and find community support. We also encourage individuals who are struggling with thoughts of self-harm or suicide, or who know someone is seriously considering suicide, to immediately contact local emergency services or a suicide prevention hotline. In the event that our intervention could help a user who may be at risk of harming themselves, the TikTok team may also alert local emergency services.
Suicide
We remove content that displays suicide, suicidal ideation, or content that might encourage participation in other self-injurious behavior. We also remove content that depicts attempted suicide or content featuring a person engaging in behavior or intending to engage in behavior that is likely to lead to self-inflicted death. We prohibit any form of content that promotes, normalizes, or glorifies suicide, provides instructions for suicide, or posts that portray a suicide as heroic or honorable.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that provides instructions for suicide Content that depicts, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies suicide Suicide games, dares, pacts, or hoaxes Self-harm and eating disorders
To avoid normalizing, encouraging, or triggering self-harm behavior, we do not allow imagery that depicts such behavior, regardless of the user's intention of posting it. We remove content that may encourage or normalize acts that are likely to lead to physical self-inflicted injury. Content that promotes eating habits that are likely to cause adverse health outcomes is also not allowed on the platform.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that depicts, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies self-harm or eating disorders Content that provides instructions on how to engage in self-harm or eating disorders Self-harm or eating disorder games, dares, pacts, or hoaxes Content that depicts, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies eating disorders or other dangerous weight loss behaviors associated with eating disorders Dangerous acts
We define risky activities or other dangerous behavior as acts conducted in a non-professional context or without the necessary skills and safety precautions that may lead to serious injury or death for the user or the public. We do not allow content that depicts, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies such behavior, including amateur stunts or dangerous challenges.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that shows the potentially inappropriate use of dangerous tools, vehicles, or objects Content that depicts or promotes ingesting substances that are not meant for consumption or could lead to severe harm Dangerous games, dares, or stunts that might lead to injury
Harassment and bullying
We believe in an inclusive community and individualized expression without fear of abuse. We do not tolerate members of our community being shamed, bullied, or harassed. Abusive content or behavior can cause severe psychological distress and will be removed from our platform.
Abusive behavior
We remove all expressions of abuse, including threats or degrading statements intended to mock, humiliate, embarrass, intimidate, or hurt an individual. This prohibition extends to the use of TikTok features. To enable expression about matters of public interest, critical comments of public figures may be allowed; however, serious abusive behavior against public figures is prohibited.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that insults another individual, or disparages an individual on the basis of attributes such as intellect, appearance, personality traits, or hygiene Content that encourages coordinated harassment Content that disparages victims of violent tragedies Content that uses TikTok interactive features (e.g., duet) to degrade others Content that depicts willful harm or intimidation, such as cyberstalking or trolling Content that wishes death, serious disease, or other serious harm on an individual or public figure Sexual harassment
Sexual harassment involves unwanted or inappropriate sexual behavior directed at another individual. We do not allow content, including comments or advances, that sexually harasses others, regardless of user's intent, as such actions can cause great distress to targeted individuals.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that attempts to make unwanted sexual contact Content that simulates sexual activity with another user, either verbally, in text (including emojis), or through the use of any in-app features Content that disparages another person's sexual activity Content that alters or morphs an image of another individual to portray or imply sexual suggestiveness or engagement in sexual activity Content that reveals, or threatens to reveal a person's private sexual life, including threats to publicize digital content, sexual history, and names of previous sexual partners Content that exposes, or threatens to expose, a person's sexual orientation without their consent or knowledge Threats of hacking, doxxing, and blackmail
Threatening to hack or dox with an intent to harass or blackmail another individual can cause serious emotional distress and other offline harm. We define doxxing as the act of collecting and publishing personal data or personally identifiable information (PII) for malicious purposes. We consider these online behaviors as forms of abuse and do not allow them on our platform.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that threatens to reveal personal data or personally identifiable information (PII), including residential address, private email address, private phone number, bank statement, social security number, or passport number Threats of blackmail or hacking another individual's account Content that incites or encourages others to hack or reveal another person's account, personal data, or personally identifiable information (PII) An individual's account, personal data, or personally identifiable information for others to abuse, troll, or harass
Adult nudity and sexual activities
We strive to create a platform that feels welcoming and safe. We do not allow nudity, pornography, or sexually explicit content on our platform. We also prohibit content depicting or supporting non-consensual sexual acts, the sharing of non-consensual intimate imagery, and adult sexual solicitation.
Sexual exploitation
Sexual exploitation is defined as any actual or attempted abuse of a position of vulnerability, power, or trust for sexual purposes, including profiting monetarily, socially, or politically from the sexual exploitation of another. We do not permit sexually exploitative content.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that depicts, solicits, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies non-consensual sexual acts or non-consensual touching, including rape and sexual assault Content that depicts, solicits, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies the sharing of non-consensual intimate imagery, including sexual images that are taken, created, or shared without consent Content that depicts, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies sexual violence Content that depicts, promotes, or glorifies sexual solicitation, including offering or asking for sexual partners, sexual chats or imagery, sexual services, premium sexual content, or sexcamming Nudity and sexual activity involving adults
Nudity and sexual activity include content that is overtly revealing of breasts, genitals, anus, or buttocks, or behaviors that mimic, imply, or display sex acts. We do not allow depictions, including digitally created or manipulated content, of nudity or sexual activity. We are mindful of content that may be offensive or culturally inappropriate in certain regions or may not be suitable for users of all ages.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that explicitly or implicitly depicts sexual activities including penetrative and non-penetrative sex, oral sex, or erotic kissing Content that depicts sexual arousal or sexual stimulation Content that depicts a sexual fetish Content that depicts exposed human genitalia, female nipples or areola, pubic regions, or buttocks Content that contains sexually explicit language for sexual gratification
Minor safety
We are deeply committed to ensuring the safety of minors on our platform. We do not tolerate activities that perpetuate the abuse, harm, endangerment, or exploitation of minors on TikTok. Any content, including animation or digitally created or manipulated media, that depicts abuse, exploitation, or nudity of minors is a violation on our platform and will be removed when detected. When warranted, we report violative content to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC) and/or other relevant legal authorities. TikTok considers a minor any person under the age of 18.
Users must meet the minimum age requirements to use TikTok, as stipulated in our Terms of Service. When underage account holders are identified, we will remove those accounts. Our platform is designed with the safety of minors in mind and some of our features are age restricted. Account holders who are under the age of 16 cannot use direct messaging or host a livestream; the age thresholds may be higher in some regions. Account holders who are under the age of 18 cannot send or receive gifts via our virtual gifting features.
Sexual exploitation of minors
Sexual exploitation of minors is defined as any abuse of a position of power or trust for sexual purposes, including profiting financially, socially, sexually, or politically from the exploitation of a minor. Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) is defined as any visual depiction of sexually explicit nudity or conduct, whether captured by predatory adults, peers, or self-generated by minors. TikTok will take action on any content or accounts involving sexual interactions and advances between an adult and a minor, or between minors with a significant age difference.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that shares, reshares, offers to trade or sell, or directs users off platform to obtain or distribute CSAM Content that engages with minors in a sexualized way, or otherwise sexualizes a minor (e.g., via product features like duets) Content that depicts, solicits, glorifies, or encourages child abuse imagery including nudity, sexualized minors, or sexual activity with minors Content that depicts, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies pedophilia or the sexual assault of a minor Content that revictimizes or capitalizes on minor victims of abuse by third party reshares or reenactments of assault or confessions Grooming behavior
Grooming behaviors are those in which an adult builds an emotional relationship with a minor in order to gain the minor's trust for the purposes of future or ongoing sexual contact, sexual abuse, trafficking, or other exploitation. These behaviors include: flattery, requests for contact on or off platform, requests for personal information, solicitation of minor sexual abuse material, sexual solicitations or comments, and gift-giving.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Grooming advances Content that depicts, promotes, normalizes, or glorifies grooming behaviors Content that solicits real-world sexual contact between a minor and an adult or between minors with a significant age difference Content that displays or offers nudity to minors Any solicitation of nude imagery or sexual contact, through blackmail or other means of coercion Nudity and sexual activity involving minors
Nudity and sexual activity involving minors include content that is overtly revealing of breasts, genitals, anus, or buttocks, or behaviors that mimic, imply, or display sex acts involving minors. We do not allow the depiction, including digitally created or manipulated content, of nudity or sexual activity.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that depicts or implies minor sexual activities including penetrative and non-penetrative sex, oral sex, or intimate kissing Content that depicts sexual arousal or sexual stimulation involving a minor Content that depicts a sexual fetish involving a minor Content that depicts exposed human genitalia, female nipples or areola, pubic regions, or buttocks of a minor Content that contains sexually explicit language depicting or describing a minor Content depicting a minor that contains sexually explicit song lyrics Content with sexually explicit dancing of a minor, including twerking, breast shaking, pelvic thrusting, or fondling the groin or breasts of oneself or another Content depicting a minor undressing Content depicting a minor in minimal clothing that is not situationally relevant to the location Sexualized comments, emojis, text, or other graphics used to veil or imply nudity or sexual activity of a minor Harmful activities by minors
Harmful minor activities include the possession or consumption of substances prohibited for minors, the misuse of legal substances, engagement in illegal activities, participation in activities, physical challenges, or dares that may threaten the well-being of minors. We remove any such content from our platform.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that suggests, depicts, imitates, or promotes the possession or consumption of alcoholic beverages, tobacco, or drugs by a minor Content that offers instruction targeting minors on how to buy, sell, or trade alcohol, tobacco, or controlled substances Content that depicts or promotes activities that may jeopardize youth well-being, including physical challenges, dares, or stunts Physical and psychological harm of minors
Behaviors that place minors at risk of physical or psychological harm include physical abuse, neglect, endangerment, and psychological disparagement. We remove any such content from our platform.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that depicts or promotes physical abuse, neglect, endangerment, or psychological disparagement of minors Content that depicts or promotes survivalist techniques without a warning asserting the hazards of replication Crimes against children
We do not allow users who have been convicted of crimes against children to have an account on our platform. These crimes include: sexual assault, molestation, murder, physical abuse or neglect, abduction, international parental kidnapping, trafficking, exploitation of minors for prostitution, live online sexual abuse of a minor, sexual exploitation of minors in the context of travel and tourism, attempts to obtain or distribute child sexual abuse material (CSAM), and the production, possession, or distribution of child sexual abuse material (CSAM). If we discover any such users, we ban the account. Any self-disclosed user information that states the account holder is a pedophile or minor sex offender will be taken at face value and the account may be deleted.
Integrity and authenticity
We believe that trust forms the foundation of our community. We do not allow activities that may undermine the integrity of our platform or the authenticity of our users. We remove content or accounts that involve spam or fake engagement, impersonation, misleading information that causes harm, or that violate any intellectual property rights.
Spam and fake engagement
Fake engagement includes any content or activity that seeks to artificially inflate popularity on the platform. We prohibit any attempts to manipulate the platform to increase interaction metrics.
Do not:
Share instructions on how to artificially increase views, likes, followers, shares, or comments Attempt to or engage in selling or buying views, likes, followers, shares, or comments Promote artificial traffic generation services Operate multiple TikTok accounts under false or fraudulent pretenses to distribute commercial spam Impersonation
We do not allow accounts that pose as another person or entity in a deceptive manner. When we confirm a report of impersonation, we will ask the user to revise the profile or suspend or ban the account. We do allow parody, commentary, or fan accounts, as long as the user indicates in the bio and username that it is fan, commentary, or parody and not affiliated with the subject of the account.
Do not:
Pose as another person or entity by using someone else's name, biographical details, or profile picture in a misleading manner Misinformation
Misinformation is defined as content that is inaccurate or false. While we encourage our community to have respectful conversations about subjects that matter to them, we do not permit misinformation that causes harm to individuals, our community, or the larger public regardless of intent.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Misinformation that incites hate or prejudice Misinformation related to emergencies that induces panic Medical misinformation that can cause harm to an individual's physical health Content that misleads community members about elections or other civic processes Conspiratorial content that attacks a specific protected group or includes a violent call to action, or denies a violent or tragic event occurred Digital Forgeries (Synthetic Media or Manipulated Media) that mislead users by distorting the truth of events and cause harm to the subject of the video, other persons, or society Do not:
Engage in coordinated inauthentic behaviors (such as the creation of accounts) to exert influence and sway public opinion while misleading individuals and our community about the account's identity, location, or purpose Intellectual property violations
Copyright is a legal right that protects original works of authorship (e.g., music, videos) and original expression of an idea (e.g., the specific way a video or music is expressed or created), although does not protect underlying ideas or facts. A trademark is a word, symbol, slogan, design that identifies and distinguishes the source of a product or service. We encourage everyone to create and share original content. Content that infringes someone else's intellectual property rights is prohibited on our platform and will be removed if we become aware of it. The use of copyrighted work under certain circumstance, such as the fair use doctrine or other applicable laws, or the use of a trademark to reference, lawfully comment, criticize, parody, make a fan page, or review a product or service may not be considered a violation of our policies.
Do not post, upload, stream, or share:
Content that violates or infringes someone else's copyrights, trademarks, or other intellectual property rights
Platform security
Our policies prohibit any activities that undermine the security and reliability of the TikTok service:
Do not hack the TikTok website, app, or associated networks, or bypass its measures to restrict user access Do not distribute files that contain viruses, Trojan horses, worms, logic bombs, or other materials that are malicious or harmful Do not modify, adapt, translate, reverse engineer, disassemble, decompile, or create any derivative products based on TikTok, including any files, tables or documentation, nor attempt to regenerate any source code, algorithms, methods, or techniques embodied in TikTok Do not use automated scripts to collect information from TikTok Thank you for being a part of our vibrant global community and working with us to maintain a welcoming space for all users. If you come across content or accounts that you believe may violate our Community Guidelines, please let us know so we can review and take appropriate action.
Part 2, they send you back to the TikTokers page and it goes around and around. They wont do anything unless it will get them in trouble, if they can get in trouble for it then they will step in. But only then.
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