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Reverse Engineering the ICC Test Batting Rankings

Reverse Engineering the ICC Test Batting Rankings
TLDR: I tried to replicate the ICC Test Batting Ratings formula from a 30-year-old book and got decently accurate results.
Skip to Results for the graphs
Link to spreadsheet where I did all my calculations
Link to sections of the book that describes the algorithm
For a while now I’ve been interested in finding the formula for how the ICC Player Ratings are calculated. I figured that, although it might be quite complex, there would be some complete formula or algorithm specified somewhere online. But alas, after quite a few google searches, I couldn’t find exactly what I was looking for. The most information I could find was from this site, which is either old and has been superseded by the more current site or was never official in the first place. So eventually, I decided it would be fun try to reverse engineer them for myself.
Disclaimer: This was really just a proof of concept, the method I used was inexact and often not very scientific. If I wanted to do this properly, I’d probably need use a lot more sophisticated tools and software that I’m unaware of. All of this is to say that this is largely just to get the jist of the formula and I could be talking out my arse at points, but hopefully it is still interesting!
The Ancient Sacred Texts
In order for this to be remotely possible I needed data in the right format I needed to know what variables were actually taken into account. I had some idea of that from the aforementioned FAQ but I eventually found myself asking around on the member forums of the ACS (which if you haven’t heard of, I strongly suggest you check it out). They very kindly pointed me to this book, which provided almost all the information I needed to try to replicate the rankings. The final section of the book very handily gives a fairly detailed description of the algorithm used by the Deloitte Ratings, which went on to become the official ICC Ratings. However, it was written all the way back in 1990 and it is very possible that the rankings have changed quite a bit in the past 30 years. As well as this, there are some aspects that are left out that I had to guess/figure out for myself, which we’ll get onto later
The Data
Of course, I also needed to have all the data, from the description in the book I knew the raw data I needed to calculate the change in rankings after a match were as follows:
· The scores of each batsman in each innings
· Whether or not the batsman was not out at the end of his innings
· The bowling rating of each bowler at the start of the match
· The number of overs bowled by each bowler
· The batting rating of all batsmen before the match
· The winner of the match
· The number of innings played by the batsman before the match
Most of these things can be taken from the scorecard of a given match. I used CricketArchive because it seemed more consistent and easier to parse than cricinfo scorecards. Thankfully, you can also find the batting and bowling rankings at any given date in the history of Test Cricket online pretty easily here. So after messing around in Power Query for a few days I was able to fumble together a script that could take the scorecard link as input and then combine all this data together for all the batsmen involved in the match and spit it out. My dodgy script only worked completely on about half the matches I gave it and the webpages only show the top 100 at any given time (meaning you had to be in the top 100 batsmen both before and after the match for me to be able to find your rating), so after throwing it around 35 test matches since the start of 2017 I was left with 218 individual match performances as data points with which to experiment.
The Algorithm
Deriving the Match Score
The ratings are a weighted average of scores given to each individual innings, and the book provides this equation for getting the new rating after an innings

https://preview.redd.it/nxnloha7my061.png?width=572&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab24a8304af9aa5dd9ed523c204ef888a91a1fb9
*After looking at the book I tried to confirm the derivation of this formula but kept on ending up with (k * Old Rating * (1-k) instead of (k * Old Rating * (1-k^(n)). However, that through the numbers off so I think what is in the book is correct and not a typo. It would be really appreciated if someone could double check this though, and point to where I’m wrong if I am.
Where k is the decay constant that they set at 0.95 (I assumed it hasn’t been change since then) and n is the number of innings played by that batsman before that innings. We only have the ratings before and after each match as that is when they are updated, but we can make an approximation that I will call Derived Match Score (DMS), by manipulating the equation to get


https://preview.redd.it/52ktfva9my061.png?width=696&format=png&auto=webp&s=f729efc3b8ab1ce49505087147aecd0d046a81df
In theory, DMS should be equal to the weighted average of the first and second innings scores given to the batsman in that match, so I can define Match Run Value (MRV) as follows, and then plot it against DMS to verify my results

https://preview.redd.it/cuzvdlsamy061.png?width=479&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc61ca82ff458ba73d8967eb785251e61e00a393
Which leads us on to the meat of the problem…
Calculating the Innings Scores
This is the actual formula that gives a score to each innings, the book denotes this as Runs Value (RV) and the crux of the formula is as follows

https://preview.redd.it/esjmnvzbmy061.png?width=544&format=png&auto=webp&s=6be7944fe125c654d7287f3cb5399c8ae1711d4f
So what are all these variables? Runs is simply the number of runs scored in the innings. Average is the average runs per wicket over all of test cricket (the book states this as “approximately 31”, however I used 30.5 as it is closer to that now)
MPF, IPF and Quality require a bit more explaining. MPF, or Match Pitch Factor can be thought of as the average runs per wicket during the match, however there is some nuances that I will get to later. Similarly, IPF is Innings Pitch Factor and can be thought of as the average runs per wicket of that innings (with the same caveats as MPF). Quality is a sort of expected average runs per wicket, which is derived as some function of the weighted average of the bowling ratings of the opposition bowlers (weighted by the number of overs each bowler bowled in that innings).
You can sort of think of this formula as taking the runs scored by a batsman, making an adjustment for how difficult it was for the average batsman in that match, making a smaller adjustment for how difficult it was for the average batsman in that specific innings, and making a much bigger adjustment for the quality of opposition bowling. Also note that these adjustments are multiplicative, and that we’re still ending up with a score on the scale of runs. A batsman up against a perfectly average attack, in a perfectly average innings in a perfectly match will have the same Runs Value as the runs he made in that innings.
Innings Pitch Factor and Match Pitch Factor
This is the first place where there is a major lack of information in the book. Regarding the ratio of runs to wickets in a match, it states:
“Incomplete innings have to be adjusted first, as 180 for 2 would very rarely be equivalent to 900 all out. A separate formula thus transforms the simple ratio of runs per wicket to the much more important sounding ‘match pitch factor’ (although, it should be stressed, the actual pitch is not being assessed in any way)”
The only problem is that they don’t give any formula for this, so I was stuck. Ultimately, with no information on the functional form of said formula, the only way I could treat this was to guess a reasonable function and continue from there.
I decided the most reasonable assumption to make was that MPF was simply the average of the IPF for each innings, and that I would calculate “my” IPF as follows. Consider the average percentage of innings runs scored by the fall of the nth wicket, and denote it as C(n). I found data for partnerships in this paper, and used it as a proxy (I know that adding all the means and finding the cumulative percentage is not necessarily the same thing, but I figured it was a good enough approximation for my purposes).
Wicket Average Runs By Fall of Wicket C(W)
1 36.6 0.122
2 72.9 0.242
3 114.3 0.380
4 157.9 0.525
5 192.5 0.640
6 225.6 0.750
7 250 0.831
8 271.5 0.903
9 287 0.954
10 300.7 1
Then calculate IPF by projecting what the completed innings score of an incomplete innings was likely to be, after considering this table, and dividing by 10. So if an innings is declared on R runs and W wickets, then

https://preview.redd.it/puv3nkezeu061.png?width=162&format=png&auto=webp&s=2af97a43c02011d1faf8edd9ea7da1fd5adc3a88
This IPF isn’t perfect, but it made a slight increase to the accuracy of the results
Quality
After sorting out the IPF and MPF I still had to figure out how to calculate the Quality variable. As with the other 2, the book doesn’t give a formula or really any hints towards it other than it uses the weighted average of bowler’s ratings. So I made the assumption that it could be approximated by the basic formula

https://preview.redd.it/jfojiclemy061.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4023f84034d8a5c4092f4ed3d362d73f1d8d7b7
Where a and b were parameters to be estimated. I thought I could use a simple linear regression on this with the data I had, but I couldn’t easily extract the quality rating from the derived match score (for reasons I’ll get too soon). I considered trying to make this estimation based on a regression predicting the actual innings totals in the matches from the bowler’s ratings - that is what the Quality variable is supposed to account for – but the data for that would be too noisy to do it properly. So I ended up to resorting to the, not very scientific, method of using Excel's solver to find values that best fit the data, then rounding them to correct significant figures. I was left with a = 1800 and b = 30.
Adjustments
The book then describes adjustments made taking into account the result of the match. I won't cover them in detail here because this post is already massively long and they are in the pages of the book I linked to above if you are interested. Basically, batsmen with high scores in winning games have their score for that innings increased proportionally to how well they did, whilst low scores in losing efforts get quite severely punished. It was all described completely which was nice as it meant I didn't have to do any guesswork but the fact the adjustments were there meant that it wasn't simple to directly work out Quality as a function of the oppositions bowling ratings.
There are also adjustments made for if a batsman finishes not out but they aren't described at all beyond a brief mention so I decided to omit them from this.
Dampening First Innings
In order that a player doesn't reach the top of the rankings immediately if they have a particularly good debut. The book puts it like this:
"The system works for all but the newest Test players, who for the first few games of their career have their ratings damped by gradually decreasing percentages to stop them rising too high and too quickly.
But after ten innings (for a batsman) or 40 wickets (for a bowler), ratings are no longer damped - after then, players are on their own
It is unclear here whether or not this means that their real rating is kept and used to calculate new ratings, which then reduced by a different percentage after each match, or if a player's first innings simply gets counted for less forever. As it was simpler to implement, I chose the later. So now a player only ever receives a given percentage -p- of points for his first inning, and the percentage of points he receives for his second and third innings, and so on, are increased linearly until his -n-th inning, at which point all innings are worth full points in the ratings. So we have parameters p and n to consider
Using the same method as that used to estimate the a and b parameters for Quality, I determined that p = 50% and n = 10. In other words, a players first inning is worth 50%, and this increases until his 10th Inning which is worth 100%.
Results
So how does my hacked together approximation of the ratings compare? As mentioned, the MRV should be equivalent to DMS (up to a transformation). If we plot them together we see that they agree pretty well with each other. In fact MRV can explain roughly 90% of the variation in DMS
https://preview.redd.it/9m0k8fmlmy061.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce4a5a3dc88509129fcc7227b800f81d4dc27454
You may wonder why this isn't a trendline with equation y = x, but rather y = 22.2x +79.9. This was to be expected as the ratings (and therefore DMS) are all based on a scale of 0 to 1000 whereas Innings Scores (and therefore MRV) are still always on the scale of runs. But we can use the information from this graph to convert each Innings Score into the correct scale. Then we can use the first equation of this post to work out the rating after the first innings, given the rating before the match and the newly converted innings score for a batsman's first inning. We can then predict what the rating should've been after the match using the calculated rating after the first innings and the second innings score. This gives us a set of ratings that we calculated using our algorithm, along with the actual ratings calculated by the ICC after the match. Plotting them together looks like this

https://preview.redd.it/r99idlynmy061.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=7994b26a8a98377ec7dcdda91c7db765ce034a75
That's an incredibly close fit, but can be a bit misleading, as ratings after a match would be close to the rating before the match, which we use in our calculations anyway. It would be more informative to take a look at the change in the ratings compared to the predicted change in the ratings.

https://preview.redd.it/ls3xc45qmy061.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b7f8e23822c46227fecc40ef8209b92edec76b7
So this is still a good fit. In fact, this algorithm can explain nearly 92% of the variance in the change in official ratings after a test match. Is that good? I'll leave that for you to decide.
In theory it should be possible to get it pretty close to 100% as we're trying to predict a process which is itself driven by an algorithm and completely non-random. Still I think this shows we have an algorithm who's results tend to line-up pretty well with those of the official ratings, and I think it was not too bad for a first try.
Where do the uncertainties lie?
I think the biggest uncertainties are in that we don't really know what sort of function the Quality, MPF and IPF variables follow, and it seems impossible to ever know that with certainty. Similarly, there are a lot of parameters to be determined. There were at least 4 that were determined here and hey are all linked together in complicated ways its impossible to take one in isolation and determine its value. Even more parameters were taken as given and could've been changed since the book came out. The nonlinear weights for each factor as well as the decay constant were examples. If I had not considered them fixed I don't think I would've had enough data to confidently determine every parameter. So next time more data and more sophisticated parameter estimation techniques would be required.
What next?
The first thing I wanna do with this is to forecast the changes in ratings after each test in India's tour of Australia. That way I can test if it actually works on new data it hasn't seen before, or if its complete junk.
Also, now that we have a similar process for determining rankings as that used in test. We could use it to make our own batting rankings for first class competitions. I think that would be really cool and interesting, if say we had a complete rankings table for the County Championship
The obvious next step is to work out the bowlers ratings, but they are even more hideous than this algorithm, so I'll leave it a bit for now. Would be interesting to come back to some time in the future though.
If someone who actually knows what they're can pick this apart or point out a flaw in what I've done, I'd love to hear from you. I'm genuinely curious as to how someone would go about doing this sort of thing, and I'd love to learn more (even if it necessitates telling me this is complete garbage)!
If you made it this far thanks for taking the time to read this!
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Who is the Greatest Six Hitter in ODI Cricket of all time?

Well, this is an easy question isn’t it? Whoever hit the Most Sixes is the Greatest. Duh. That player hit more Sixes than anyone ever, how can they not be the greatest? Let’s have a look who it is…
  1. Shahid Afridi – 351 Sixes in 398 Matches
  2. CH Gayle – 314 Sixes in 289 Matches
  3. ST Jayasuriya – 270 Sixes in 445 Matches
  4. MS Dhoni – 224 Sixes in 341 Matches
  5. RG Sharma – 218 Sixes in 206 Matches
  6. AB de Villiers – 204 Sixes in 228 Matches
  7. BB McCullum – 200 Sixes in 260 Matches
  8. SR Tendulkar – 195 Sixes in 463 Matches
  9. SC Ganguly – 190 Sixes in 311 Matches
  10. EJG Morgan – 189 Sixes in 222 Matches
  11. MJ Guptill – 164 Sixes in 169 Matches
  12. RT Ponting – 162 Sixes in 375 Matches
  13. Yuvraj Singh – 155 Sixes in 304 Matches
  14. CL Cairns – 153 Sixes in 215 Matches
  15. AC Gilchrist – 149 Sixes in 287 Matches
Shahid Afridi comfortably leads this category, although Gayle could overtake him if he has a good world cup. All the big names are all there; de Villiers, McCullum, Sachin, Ponting. I wouldn’t say there are too many surprises in this list.
So there you have it Shahid Afridi is the greatest six hitt-, wait hang on a minute. Ganguly has played 90 more matches, yet only scored one more six than Morgan… Is he really a greater six hitter than Morgan?
What if I considered how many sixes were hit per innings? And also how many balls it took per six, to consider the batsmen who come in lower down the order and don’t face as many balls per innings. Yes ok that could be a good idea, but wait does that mean I need to do more analysis? Yes? Ugh alright then, here we go.
Let’s have a look at Sixes per innings, with a minimum of 30 sixes hit:
  1. SO Hetmyer – 1.50 Sixes per innings
  2. HH Pandya – 1.24 Sixes per innings
  3. AD Russell – 1.23 Sixes per innings
  4. CJ Anderson – 1.22 Sixes per innings
  5. MP Stoinis – 1.16 Sixes per innings
  6. KA Pollard – 1.16 Sixes per innings
  7. CH Gayle – 1.11 Sixes per innings
  8. Rizwan Cheema – 1.09 Sixes per innings
  9. RG Sharma – 1.09 Sixes per innings
  10. JC Buttler – 1.08 Sixes per innings
  11. YK Pathan – 1.05 Sixes per innings
  12. Najibullah Zadran – 1.02 Sixes per innings
  13. MJ Guptill – 0.99 Sixes per innings
  14. R Powell – 0.97 Sixes per innings
  15. GJ Maxwell – 0.97 Sixes per innings
Well this measure is definitely better. All these players are well-known for their big hitting, and Hetmyer especially has burst onto the scene and really shown his batting prowess. Maybe you’d expect to see de Villiers (17th with 0.94) and McCullum (25th with 0.88) in the top fifteen to name a few but they are both still up there, and it is worth mentioning that they were much better than just ‘power players’ like the names above. For what it's worth, Rahul Dravid takes bottom spot, 196th with a measly 0.13 sixes per innings.
Now let’s look at Balls per Six, which will better accommodate the lower order batsmen who have less balls to construct an innings, again minimum 30 sixes hit:
  1. AD Russell – 14.2 Balls per Six
  2. YK Pathan – 16.6 Balls per Six
  3. HH Pandya – 17.4 Balls per Six
  4. CJ Anderson – 18.5 Balls per Six
  5. Rizwan Cheema – 19.6 Balls per Six
  6. Shahid Afridi – 19.6 Balls per Six
  7. DJG Sammy – 22.3 Balls per Six
  8. KA Pollard – 22.4 Balls per Six
  9. SO Hetmyer – 22.3 Balls per Six
  10. BL Cairns – 23.0 Balls per Six
  11. NLTC Perera – 23.9 Balls per Six
  12. JC Buttler – 25.2 Balls per Six
  13. GJ Maxwell – 25.4 Balls per Six
  14. DR Smith – 26.3 Balls per Six
  15. R Powell – 26.9 Balls per Six
This list is very similar to the Sixes per Innings list, as it should be, but lower order batsman like Russell, Sammy and Perera rise up the list, while good batsman who face a lot of balls, like Gayle, Sharma and Guptill fall down the list. Amid all the change there is one constant. In last again is Dravid with 363.9 Balls per Six, which is impressive in how high that is.
So it seems that Russell and Pandya, who are in the top 3 for both measures are the greatest so that settles that then. Thanks for readi-. Oh hang on again, I’ve just realised something.
Let’s have a look at this graph here, posted by chance by a random (most likely very handsome) redditor. The graph is for INDIVIDUAL innings, and shows that average balls needed to hit a six has fallen from 131 balls in 2000 to 52 balls in 2019 (*up to CWC 2019), and therefore sixes hit in an average individual innings has increased from 0.24 sixes per individual innings in 2000 to 0.60 in 2019. If you take this further back the values for 1980 and 1990 for Sixes per Innings is 0.14 and 0.27 respectively and for Balls per Six for 1980 and 1990 is 433 and 203 respectively. Therefore you can deduce that Sixes are hit roughly 4 times more often in 2019 compared to 1990.
This very obviously shows that sixes are hit way more often nowadays than previously. It is therefore no surprise that 13 of the top 15 players in the second list and 12 of the top 15 in the third list have played at least one game in the period 2015-2019 which is generally recognised as a period of rising strike rates and massive scores. Here’s a thought, what if I weighted every Six hit in a year by the yearly average and arrive at a number where you could easily differentiate between players.
(This paragraph is a boring formula, scroll down if you don’t want to read.) What I have done, for both the previous Balls and Innings measures, is taken that specific value for a given year and divided by the average figure for that year (so Morgan in 2019 hit 2.38 sixes per innings divided by the average 0.6 gives 3.93). Then take that value and multiply it by innings played in the yea total innings played. (So for Morgan, it would be 3.93*(8/207) = 0.15). You do this for all years that the batsmen played and Sum all the values. The final value for Morgan is 2.08. This means that if an average batsman played exactly the same number of innings in those years as Morgan, then Morgan would hit 2.08 times more Sixes than the average batsman in this period. The exact same calculation is done for Balls per Six, and Morgan’s value here is 1.67, which makes sense, as he is likely to face more balls per innings than the average batsman.
So this should take years into perspective, and looking at Weighted Sixes per innings first, let’s look who came out on top:
  1. IVA Richards – 3.64
  2. BL Cairns – 3.21
  3. Rizwan Cheema – 3.19
  4. CG Greenidge – 3.13
  5. KA Pollard – 3.11
  6. YK Pathan – 3.09
  7. CH Gayle – 3.08
  8. AD Russell – 3.02
  9. SO Hetmyer – 2.97
  10. Shahid Afridi – 2.96
  11. RL Powell – 2.94
  12. JM Kemp – 2.93
  13. A Flintoff – 2.88
  14. CL Cairns – 2.73
  15. HH Pandya – 2.67
This gives a better unbiased look, as at least three batsmen played in each decade from the 1970s. Viv, as everyone knows, was a monster. He hit more than 3.5x more sixes than his average peer and leads the field by a distance. The big hitters of today are still in the top 15, but have been relegated down somewhat, while big hitters of yesteryear like Flintoff, Cairns and Greenidge make an appearance. Now lets check out Weighted Balls per Six, which will most likely reward lower order batsmen who faced less balls:
  1. BL Cairns – 12.10
  2. Shahid Afridi – 5.42
  3. YK Pathan – 5.30
  4. AD Russell – 5.21
  5. IT Botham – 4.76
  6. Wasim Akram – 4.71
  7. IVA Richards – 4.56
  8. Rizwan Cheema – 4.41
  9. Kapil Dev – 4.29
  10. RL Powell – 4.16
  11. HH Pandya – 3.78
  12. KA Pollard – 3.60
  13. DJG Sammy – 3.56
  14. DR Smith – 3.53
  15. CJ Anderson – 3.50
Lance Cairns wins this by an absolute country mile. He hit over 12 times more Sixes than his average peer. To show his incredible ability: in 1983, 145 sixes were hit in 37,464 balls (258 balls per six). Lance hit 21 sixes in 259 balls at a frankly ridiculous rate of 13 balls per six, 21 times better than the average. Looking at the unweighted Sixes per ball, Lance is 10th and was the only player in the top 15 to play in the 70s and 80s and only Shahid Afridi played any ODI cricket before 2003. As predicted, the lower order batsman come to the fore in this table, and the big hitters of today still make an appearance.
Who is the Greatest Six hitter of all time? You could argue Afridi, or Russell, or Viv, but for me it has to be Lance Cairns. He hit 41 sixes in 65 innings, back when people didn’t even know what a boundary was. He is 2nd behind Viv in Weighted Sixes per innings despite facing less than 15 balls per average innings. Upon further research, I also found out he named his bat ‘Excalibur’.. I mean come on, if you don’t love him even more now, then you never will.
Thanks for reading, I actually very much enjoyed making this, so I hope you enjoyed reading this. If you have any specific queries about what I could've done a bit different, please comment down below and if you're interested in finding a value for a specific player and where they rank, comment their name and I should be able to tell you their scores :)
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Hew does Duckworth-Lewis-Stern or DLS method work?

What is the DLS?
The Duckworth-Lewis-Stern or DLS method (as it is now known) is a mathematical system employed to calculate target scores and reach outcomes in rain-shortened limited-overs matches. Devised by English statisticians Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis and originally named after them, it was first used in 1997. Australian academic Steve Stern updated the formula, becoming its custodian ahead of the 2015 World Cup; his name was added to the title.Neither the ARR nor the MPO methods were able to factor the match situation into their calculations, failing to take into account the wickets a team had left. The DLS method addresses this issue, considering both wickets and overs as resources and revising the target based on the availability of those resources. At the start of an innings, a team has 100% of its resources — 50 overs and 10 wickets — available. The DLS method expresses the balls and wickets remaining at any point as a percentage. How much is a wicket or a ball worth in percentage terms? This is calculated according to a formula which takes into account the scoring pattern in international matches, derived from analysis of data (ODI and T20, men and women) from a sliding four-year window. On the first of July every year, a new year’s worth of data is added; so the DLS evolves as scoring trends do.
The rate at which resources deplete is not constant over the course of an innings: the curve is exponential, with that resource percentage falling faster as more wickets are lost and more balls are consumed.
The DLS methods sets targets (and decides outcomes) by calculating how many runs teams should score (and would have scored) if the resources available to both sides were equal. To calculate a target, the formula may simply be expressed thus: Team 2’s par score = Team 1’s score x (Team 2’s resources/Team 1’s resources). In international cricket, the resource values (which are not publicly available) are obtained from a computer programme.
The DLS method also allows for the fact that a team batting before a rain interruption would have batted differently had it known the game was going to be truncated. Of course, the weighting of wickets and overs is based on a formula, and there can be no universally perfect weightage, simply because the method cannot make qualitative measurements of individual batting abilities. It was long felt that under the D-L method, teams chasing big totals were better off keeping wickets in hand when rain was around the corner even if it meant scoring at a lower rate. Steve Stern felt he had improved on the D-L method in this regard by adjusting the formula to reflect changing realities in high-scoring ODIs and T20 matches.
An older version of the DL method (called the D-L Standard Edition), meant to be used where computers are not available, applies pre-calculated resource values off a chart. Where upward revisions are required (when the first innings is interrupted), a quantity called the G50 — the average total score in a 50-over innings — is used as reference. For matches involving ICC full member nations, G50 is currently fixed at 245. However, the Standard Edition is not used in international cricket.
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On Conversion Rates

Yesterday I had a great chat with IndYeah777 about simple methods to analyse players consistency, and ability to pass certain scoring milestones. For those interested they can see the original conversation here.
Personally I prefer things that anyone with a few minutes and stats guru themselves could calculate to more over the top analyses, although the latter has tempted me a great deal of times in the past. The benefits of more simplified analyses though, with clearly defined metrics, far outweigh the greater probative value of more complex analyses. This isn't just limited to more people being able to see and critique the method, but also allowing them to be more approachable to a wider audience.
In this instance my concern is with using something well known in cricket circles, the conversion rate. This is a measure of how often a batsman goes from scoring 50 to 100, this being in terms of a simple formula 100s/(50s+100s). The reason that this is 50s+100s on the bottom here is that when a batsman passes 100, that score only counts in the 100s column, not the 50s column as well. It's also why someone like Bradman can have 29 centuries and only 13 50s.
Now, from this base we can consider something that is well known within cricket statistics, but not well described by most stats, this being that players tend to settle into their innings, and that this is different for each player. You can see this with players like Kohli who is generally not great until he gets going, then can flay opposition.
We can also use something else known within cricket, that scores tend to following something called a geometric distribution. This distribution represents the probability of a number of failures before a success (or vice versa), in this instance of course "failures" are balls where a wicket doesn't occur, and "successes" are wickets. Of course as we're talking about batsmen I doubt they'd consider it that way around, but I'd rather keep the language to the same as used in that wikipedia article for those interested in further reading. There is a subtly we need to consider about this, but first we're going to take two assumptions to keep this as simple as possible:
  1. That balls is approximately proportional to runs (that is, they have a fairly consistent strike rate over their innings).
  2. Most players face enough balls that we can use the more convenient exponential distribution.
The first means that we can just consider runs and it shouldn't be too much of a problem, and the second means we can use the continuous analogue to the geometric function. Now, there are cases where neither of these are appropriate, but for our purposes this should be sufficient.
Now, there is a subtly we need to keep in mind, the geometric/exponential distribution assumes that the probability of getting out each ball is the same. This is funnily enough the exact thing we're trying to probe though, how this changes. Why use these then? Because we can make what we'll call "the model batsman". Essentially, we can predict the chance of passing these milestones for a batsman of a given average, and compare with what players actually manage. In effect we're interested in how much better or worse than the model batsmen each player is.
How can we use this then, well, we should first define the data we'll use:
  1. Total innings a player has batted
  2. Number of times they've scored 25+
  3. Number of 50s
  4. Number of 100s
This gives us three distinct regions we can probe. There were a number of ways to do this, but the one that seemed most appropriate was focusing on how well they converted from one score to the next.
It's also worth noting that exponential and geometric distributions are "memoryless", that is, the chance of scoring 30 more runs when you're on 50 should be the same as when you're on 3. This is a property we can take advantage of. Essentially we can compare how well players go from one score to another from the above.
With those previous three we can define three separate new conversion rates:
  1. Past 25 runs: Number of 25+ Scores / Total Innings
  2. 25s converted to 50+: Number of 50s + 100s / Number of 25+ Scores
  3. 50s converted to 100+: Number of 100s / Number of 50s + 100s
It's worth noting that this final one is simply the standard conversion rate. Using these definitions and comparing it to what average that would relate to for the "model batsman", we can find the following for all batsmen with at least 10 centuries:
Players Ave. Ins 25+% 50+% 100+% 25+ Ave. 50+ Ave. 100+ Ave.
DG Bradman (AUS) 99.94 80 71.25% 73.68% 69.05% 73.75 81.86 134.99
GA Headley (WI) 60.83 40 55.00% 68.18% 66.67% 41.81 65.27 123.31
H Sutcliffe (ENG) 60.73 84 69.05% 67.24% 41.03% 67.49 62.99 56.11
SPD Smith (AUS) 59.66 104 59.62% 66.13% 48.78% 48.33 60.45 69.65
KF Barrington (ENG) 58.67 131 61.07% 68.75% 36.36% 50.69 66.72 49.42
ED Weekes (WI) 58.61 81 65.43% 64.15% 44.12% 58.94 56.31 61.10
WR Hammond (ENG) 58.45 140 62.86% 52.27% 47.83% 53.84 38.53 67.78
GS Sobers (WI) 57.78 160 60.63% 57.73% 46.43% 49.95 45.50 65.16
KC Sangakkara (SL) 57.40 233 58.37% 66.18% 42.22% 46.43 60.55 57.98
JB Hobbs (ENG) 56.94 102 66.67% 63.24% 34.88% 61.65 54.54 47.47
CL Walcott (WI) 56.68 74 56.76% 69.05% 51.72% 44.13 67.49 75.84
L Hutton (ENG) 56.67 138 60.87% 61.90% 36.54% 50.35 52.12 49.66
JH Kallis (SA) 55.37 280 57.14% 64.38% 43.69% 44.67 56.76 60.38
GS Chappell (AUS) 53.86 151 55.63% 65.48% 43.64% 42.62 59.03 60.29
SR Tendulkar (INDIA) 53.78 329 54.41% 66.48% 42.86% 41.07 61.23 59.01
JE Root (ENG) 53.76 110 57.27% 71.43% 28.89% 44.85 74.30 40.26
BC Lara (WI) 52.88 232 56.03% 63.08% 41.46% 43.16 54.25 56.79
CA Pujara (INDIA) 52.65 85 56.47% 58.33% 46.43% 43.74 46.38 65.16
Javed Miandad (PAK) 52.57 189 57.14% 61.11% 34.85% 44.67 50.76 47.43
R Dravid (INDIA) 52.31 286 58.04% 59.64% 36.36% 45.95 48.36 49.42
Mohammad Yousuf (PAK) 52.29 156 54.49% 67.06% 42.11% 41.17 62.56 57.80
Younis Khan (PAK) 52.05 213 55.40% 56.78% 50.75% 42.32 44.17 73.71
RT Ponting (AUS) 51.85 287 54.01% 66.45% 39.81% 40.58 61.17 54.27
A Flower (ZIM) 51.54 112 53.57% 65.00% 30.77% 40.05 58.03 42.42
MEK Hussey (AUS) 51.52 137 59.85% 58.54% 39.58% 48.70 46.68 53.95
S Chanderpaul (WI) 51.37 280 55.71% 61.54% 31.25% 42.73 51.49 42.98
KS Williamson (NZ) 51.16 110 52.73% 72.41% 40.48% 39.06 77.45 55.28
SM Gavaskar (INDIA) 51.12 214 52.80% 69.91% 43.04% 39.14 69.84 59.30
SR Waugh (AUS) 51.06 260 51.54% 61.19% 39.02% 37.71 50.90 53.13
ML Hayden (AUS) 50.73 184 58.70% 54.63% 50.85% 46.92 41.35 73.92
AR Border (AUS) 50.56 265 54.72% 62.07% 30.00% 41.45 52.41 41.52
AB de Villiers (SA) 50.46 176 59.66% 57.14% 35.00% 48.40 44.67 47.62
IVA Richards (WI) 50.23 182 56.59% 66.99% 34.78% 43.91 62.40 47.34
DCS Compton (ENG) 50.06 131 54.96% 62.50% 37.78% 41.76 53.19 51.36
HM Amla (SA) 49.91 186 56.99% 59.43% 42.86% 44.45 48.04 59.01
DPMD Jayawardene (SL) 49.84 252 54.37% 61.31% 40.48% 41.02 51.10 55.28
Inzamam-ul-Haq (PAK) 49.60 200 54.00% 65.74% 35.21% 40.57 59.60 47.90
V Kohli (INDIA) 49.55 101 50.50% 60.78% 54.84% 36.58 50.21 83.22
V Sehwag (ICC/INDIA) 49.34 180 56.11% 54.46% 41.82% 43.26 41.13 57.35
MJ Clarke (AUS) 49.10 198 46.97% 59.14% 50.91% 33.08 47.59 74.05
TT Samaraweera (SL) 48.76 132 49.24% 67.69% 31.82% 35.29 64.07 43.66
RN Harvey (AUS) 48.41 137 52.55% 62.50% 46.67% 38.86 53.19 65.60
KD Walters (AUS) 48.26 125 53.60% 71.64% 31.25% 40.08 74.96 42.98
GC Smith (SA) 48.25 205 56.59% 56.03% 41.54% 43.90 43.16 56.91
DA Warner (AUS) 47.94 123 56.10% 63.77% 45.45% 43.24 55.56 63.41
G Boycott (ENG) 47.72 193 55.44% 59.81% 34.38% 42.38 48.64 46.82
AC Gilchrist (AUS) 47.60 137 52.55% 59.72% 39.53% 38.86 48.49 53.88
RB Kanhai (WI) 47.53 137 59.85% 52.44% 34.88% 48.70 38.72 47.47
KP Pietersen (ENG) 47.28 181 56.35% 56.86% 39.66% 43.59 44.28 54.05
WM Lawry (AUS) 47.15 123 52.85% 61.54% 32.50% 39.19 51.49 44.48
LRPL Taylor (NZ) 47.10 146 52.05% 56.58% 37.21% 38.29 43.89 50.57
RB Simpson (AUS) 46.81 111 55.86% 59.68% 27.03% 42.92 48.42 38.21
Azhar Ali (PAK) 46.78 116 52.59% 65.57% 35.00% 38.89 59.24 47.62
PBH May (ENG) 46.77 106 56.60% 58.33% 37.14% 43.92 46.38 50.48
CH Lloyd (WI) 46.67 175 54.29% 61.05% 32.76% 40.92 50.66 44.80
Misbah-ul-Haq (PAK) 46.62 132 55.30% 67.12% 20.41% 42.20 62.71 31.46
AL Hassett (AUS) 46.56 69 56.52% 53.85% 47.62% 43.81 40.38 67.39
DM Jones (AUS) 46.55 89 47.19% 59.52% 44.00% 33.29 48.18 60.90
AR Morris (AUS) 46.48 79 55.70% 54.55% 50.00% 42.71 41.24 72.13
DR Martyn (AUS) 46.37 109 55.05% 60.00% 36.11% 41.87 48.94 49.08
AN Cook (ENG) 46.33 266 50.38% 64.18% 36.05% 36.46 56.37 49.00
DL Amiss (ENG) 46.30 88 42.05% 59.46% 50.00% 28.85 48.08 72.13
VVS Laxman (INDIA) 45.97 225 52.44% 61.86% 23.29% 38.73 52.05 34.31
Saeed Anwar (PAK) 45.52 91 53.85% 73.47% 30.56% 40.38 81.08 42.17
MD Crowe (NZ) 45.36 131 49.62% 53.85% 48.57% 35.67 40.38 69.23
G Kirsten (SA) 45.27 176 50.00% 62.50% 38.18% 36.06 53.19 51.93
JL Langer (AUS) 45.27 182 54.40% 53.54% 43.40% 41.05 40.01 59.89
M Azharuddin (INDIA) 45.03 147 51.70% 56.58% 51.16% 37.89 43.89 74.60
SM Katich (AUS) 45.03 99 56.57% 62.50% 28.57% 43.87 53.19 39.91
Zaheer Abbas (PAK) 44.79 124 46.77% 55.17% 37.50% 32.90 42.03 50.97
CG Greenidge (WI) 44.72 185 51.35% 55.79% 35.85% 37.51 42.83 48.73
GP Thorpe (ENG) 44.66 179 49.72% 61.80% 29.09% 35.77 51.94 40.49
AI Kallicharran (WI) 44.43 109 51.38% 58.93% 36.36% 37.53 47.27 49.42
RB Richardson (WI) 44.39 146 56.16% 52.44% 37.21% 43.33 38.72 50.57
TW Graveney (ENG) 44.38 123 52.85% 47.69% 35.48% 39.19 33.76 48.25
DI Gower (ENG) 44.25 204 54.41% 51.35% 31.58% 41.07 37.51 43.37
DJ Cullinan (SA) 44.21 115 52.17% 56.67% 41.18% 38.42 44.01 56.35
MC Cowdrey (ENG) 44.06 188 51.06% 62.50% 36.67% 37.19 53.19 49.83
Hanif Mohammad (PAK) 43.98 97 45.36% 61.36% 44.44% 31.62 51.19 61.65
ME Trescothick (ENG) 43.79 143 51.75% 58.11% 32.56% 37.94 46.05 44.55
Saleem Malik (PAK) 43.69 154 50.00% 57.14% 34.09% 36.06 44.67 46.46
DC Boon (AUS) 43.65 190 50.53% 55.21% 39.62% 36.62 42.08 54.00
JH Edrich (ENG) 43.54 127 54.33% 52.17% 33.33% 40.97 38.42 45.51
MA Taylor (AUS) 43.49 186 52.69% 60.20% 32.20% 39.01 49.26 44.12
PA de Silva (SL) 42.97 159 47.17% 56.00% 47.62% 33.27 43.11 67.39
HP Tillakaratne (SL) 42.87 131 43.51% 54.39% 35.48% 30.04 41.04 48.25
MJ Slater (AUS) 42.83 131 50.38% 53.03% 40.00% 36.46 39.41 54.56
IR Bell (ENG) 42.69 205 47.80% 69.39% 32.35% 33.87 68.40 44.30
GA Gooch (ENG) 42.58 215 53.02% 57.89% 30.30% 39.40 45.74 41.87
M Amarnath (INDIA) 42.50 113 55.75% 55.56% 31.43% 42.78 42.53 43.19
IM Chappell (AUS) 42.42 136 52.94% 55.56% 35.00% 39.30 42.53 47.62
D Elgar (SA) 42.30 67 43.28% 62.07% 55.56% 29.85 52.41 85.06
DL Haynes (WI) 42.29 202 49.50% 57.00% 31.58% 35.55 44.47 43.37
PR Umrigar (INDIA) 42.22 94 51.06% 54.17% 46.15% 37.19 40.77 64.66
CH Gayle (WI) 42.18 182 53.30% 53.61% 28.85% 39.72 40.09 40.21
SC Ganguly (INDIA) 42.17 188 54.26% 50.00% 31.37% 40.88 36.06 43.13
DB Vengsarkar (INDIA) 42.13 185 49.73% 56.52% 32.69% 35.78 43.81 44.72
HH Gibbs (SA) 41.95 154 50.65% 51.28% 35.00% 36.75 37.43 47.62
GR Viswanath (INDIA) 41.93 155 52.90% 59.76% 28.57% 39.26 48.55 39.91
ME Waugh (AUS) 41.81 209 53.11% 60.36% 29.85% 39.50 49.52 41.35
AG Prince (SA) 41.64 104 42.31% 50.00% 50.00% 29.06 36.06 72.13
MP Vaughan (ENG) 41.44 147 48.98% 50.00% 50.00% 35.02 36.06 72.13
TM Dilshan (SL) 40.98 145 49.66% 54.17% 41.03% 35.71 40.77 56.11
AJ Strauss (ENG) 40.91 178 53.37% 50.53% 43.75% 39.81 36.62 60.48
PD Collingwood (ENG) 40.56 115 50.43% 51.72% 33.33% 36.52 37.92 45.51
ST Jayasuriya (SL) 40.07 188 45.21% 52.94% 31.11% 31.49 39.30 42.82
RR Sarwan (WI) 40.01 154 47.40% 63.01% 32.61% 33.48 54.13 44.61
AJ Stewart (ENG) 39.54 235 52.34% 48.78% 25.00% 38.61 34.82 36.06
Asad Shafiq (PAK) 39.21 95 45.26% 65.12% 35.71% 31.53 58.27 48.56
Mushtaq Mohammad (PAK) 39.17 100 48.00% 60.42% 34.48% 34.06 49.61 46.96
MS Atapattu (SL) 39.02 156 41.67% 50.77% 48.48% 28.55 36.87 69.06
Asif Iqbal (PAK) 38.85 99 49.49% 46.94% 47.83% 35.54 33.05 67.78
BB McCullum (NZ) 38.64 176 44.32% 55.13% 27.91% 30.72 41.98 39.17
Mudassar Nazar (PAK) 38.09 116 46.55% 50.00% 37.04% 32.69 36.06 50.33
JG Wright (NZ) 37.82 148 50.00% 47.30% 34.29% 36.06 33.39 46.70
MA Atherton (ENG) 37.69 212 49.53% 59.05% 25.81% 35.58 47.45 36.91
Ijaz Ahmed (PAK) 37.67 92 36.96% 70.59% 50.00% 25.11 71.77 72.13
N Hussain (ENG) 37.18 171 42.69% 64.38% 29.79% 29.37 56.77 41.28
NJ Astle (NZ) 37.02 137 45.26% 56.45% 31.43% 31.53 43.72 43.19
CL Hooper (WI) 36.46 173 46.24% 50.00% 32.50% 32.41 36.06 44.48
AJ Lamb (ENG) 36.09 139 46.04% 50.00% 43.75% 32.23 36.06 60.48
RJ Shastri (INDIA) 35.79 121 38.84% 48.94% 47.83% 26.43 34.98 67.78
MW Gatting (ENG) 35.55 138 43.48% 51.67% 32.26% 30.01 37.85 44.19
IT Botham (ENG) 33.54 161 45.96% 48.65% 38.89% 32.16 34.69 52.94
Now, I could go through and discuss particular examples at length, but I feel it's probably better to let others go through and see what they can find for themselves. The only example I really want to note is Joe Root, where this reveals interestingly that he has an interesting spike in his ability to convert 25s to 50s with an effective average in that region around 74. In this sense it could be argued that it's not that he's bad at converting 50s as such, but rather that he's just really good at making them compared to his batting otherwise.
It'd also note that these averages aren't "their average score" during that time, but rather what their rate of converting between those scores would be for the "model batsman".
There are also some cases where players averages are lower in all three than their actual average (e.g. Dravid). This is an example of something called Simpson's Paradox.
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cricket batting average calculation formula video

Easily calculate your cricket batting or bowling averages or strike rates with this online cricket calculator. Home Compare About FAQ. Cricket Calculator An Online Calculator for Cricketers. Affiliate Sites Win $1,000,000 in an online song competition - milliondollarriff.com How to calculate batting strike rate in cricket Strike Rate is the total number of runs a batsman will score if he faces 100 deliveries, at the current rate. It is calculated by the runs scored by batsman divided by the number of balls he faced multiplied by 100. Formula – How to calculate Batting Average. Batting Average = Runs Scored ÷ Times Out “Runs Scored” – The number of runs scored by the batter. “Times Out” – The number of times the batter has been caught out. Example. A batter scores at bat 522 times and is out 27 times in that time. 522 ÷ 27 = 19.33. Therefore, the player’s batting average is 19.33. Frequently Asked Questions Ok, now what you’ve been waiting for.. The formula to calculate a hitter’s batting average: The Calculation: Add up your hits. Divide this number by your total at bats. This will provide you with your batting average. Example: Let’s say you have 600 at bats on the season. Out of those 600 at bats you reached base successfully by a base ... Formula. Batting average=total runs/number of times dismissed. Bowling average=total runs given/wickets taken For a normal match, where both the teams complete their quota of 50 Overs each, and the team batting first wins, the formula to calculate NRR is nothing but the difference of their run-rates. Say, for instance, in the Match No. 26 of the World Cup 2019 , in which both the teams – Australia and Bangladesh, played out all 100 overs, with the score-card reading: Net Run Rate Calculation Formula: A team’s run rate is calculated by counting the average runs scored by total overs played i.e. Run Rate = Total Runs Scored ÷ Total Overs Played. But one may not confuse between the run and net run rate. As the NRR is calculated as: Divide the number of hits by the number of at-bats. The answer tells you the battering average, or the fraction of the time that a batter turned an at-bat attempt into a successful hit. For example, if a player had 70 Hits and 200 At-Bats, his Batting Average is 70 ÷ 200 = 0.350. This short tutorial explains you on how to calculate the Batting Average (BA) of a batsman in Cricket. Formula: Batting Average (BA) = Total Number of Runs Scored / Numer Of Times Out Let us consider an example to calculate the batting average of a batsman whose total number of runs scored is 600 and number of times he been out is 25. Step 1: Given, Cricket Batting Average Formula. Batting Average = Number of Runs Scored / Number of Times Out (Or) Batting Average = (Total No. of runs scored by the batsman) / (No. of times he has got a chance to bat in the matches he has played (or) the number of innings played - number of times he has remained not out)

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cricket batting average calculation formula

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