Sounds kinda like somebody who goes bankrupt in the casino business, right? But we're told over and over
and over that Toda was "a successful businessman". Let's take a look at one of the rare examples of his supposed business savvy, which is rare because, while SGI tells us that Toda had "ten businesses" or "
seventeen businesses", it only identifies TWO - the publishing company that went bankrupt and the failed credit cooperative.
Hmmm...
Anyhow, on to business! This is all from
The Human Revolution, Vol. 2, First Edition 1974. First, a bit of a lead-in about the failing publishing company because that's an integral part of the narrative:
When word got out about the condition the company was in, Toda's associates in the publishing field were certain to react in different ways. Some would sympathize, others would laugh, and perhaps some would make derogatory comments about Toda's abilities in business.
Perhaps 😐
But none of this would alter him.
Why
not? If you fail at something, shouldn't the thought at least
cross your mind that you need to do something
different to avoid that outcome
again? If you were
able to understand
why you failed, wouldn't that
knowledge help you perhaps make better decisions in the future? Ah, but that would require
change, something Ikeda
prides himself on never doing, so naturally,
his "mentor" would never, either.
Let the publishing firm stop operations, let it go bankrupt, Josei Toda was and would remain a man with a great mission.
See, when people can't
focus on their work, they don't tend to do as well. This is one of the dangerous aspects of religious zealotry.
But he would always rise to the top again. That was the kind of man he was, and Yamamoto was certain that some day the whole world would come to understand and respect this great personality. (p. 200)
Made to order in his ghostwritten fictitious novels! But the truth peeks out once in a while from under the sloppy covering of lies. Let's back up a few pages and see what led up to all this.
As one of the initial steps to implement the Dodge Line, all new loans from the Financial Bank for Reconstruction were halted. This dealt industry a crippling blow and caused a panic in financial circles that had immediate repercussions in the offices of Josei Toda's publishing firm.
Reopened after the war primarily to serve as a basis for the rebuilding of the Soka Gakkai
THERE's a big problem right there....
Toda's company, Nihon Shogakkan, had in that sense been a success, largely due to his efficient and able management. But it was already financially shaky when the Dodge Line, by stimulating a tight-money policy in local banks, seriously reduced Toda's operational funds.
Okay - let's pause here. It
appears that Toda's supposed "efficient and able management" was all about restarting the Soka Gakkai. What we learn here is that Toda's
company is "financially shaky" - it is only surviving thanks to infusions of
other people's money in the form of bank loans. His publishing business is
NOT profitable, though earlier we were told it
was! If the only way you can stay open is by taking out loans
on an ongoing basis, you're insolvent.
It is possible that he ought to have acted quickly to reduce business expenses by cutting back on the staff and effecting other emergency methods.
Yes, that would have been consistent with "efficient and able management" IF that "efficient and able management" had been referring to the management of his
publishing business.
But he could not because he was fundamentally positive and humane in business. He could not find it in his heart to fire people who had been loyal to him, the company, and Soka Gakkai through very trying times. Perhaps he was not cold-blooded enough to succeed in modern business.
Or perhaps he simply
WASN'T capable of "efficient and able management".
But
that would mean he
wasn't a successful businessman, and the whole rest of the narrative insists that he
WAS a successful businessman! None of this is making any narrative sense.
A resourceful man, never at a loss for fresh ideas, especially in times of trouble, Toda gave much thought to his predicament. At last he decided that when money is tight the way to profit is to open a credit association. A small moneylending business would provide the operational funds so badly needed by his publishing firm. As luck would have it, something promising in this line turned up quite soon.
Sense of foreboding...rising...rising...
One morning in June, 1949, Toda received an unexpected visit from Taro Kurikawa, an old acquaintance who had been kind enough to lend office space to Toda when he first reopened the publishing business after the war.
This source stated plainly that Toda
bought the whole building at the very beginning. With his
own money.
The two men discussed many things, including the Dodge Line and the menacing effect it was having on Toda's business. Kurikawa, who had once been a member of the Tokyo metropolitan assembly, had many friends.
Maybe HE should be the one starting a credit cooperative!😃
When Toda told him of his idea to start a small finance company, Kurikawa listened attentively. Then slapping his thigh, he suddenly said: "I've got it. You're right that in times like these lending money is the only way to survive, and I just got wind of some news that might interest you."
Isn't that a strange way of thinking? That when people don't have any money, the best way to MAKE money is to
lend THEM money? How are they going to pay it back if they don't have any money? Isn't that
predatory and UGLY?? Like
loan-sharking?? DEFINITELY non-Buddhist!
"It's not definite yet, but I hear that an old acquaintance of mine - Toru Oi - is trying to convert his consumers' guild into a credit cooperative. He used to be a high government offical; but he's gotten old, and it would be dangerous for him to assume management of a business."
WHY "dangerous"??
"So far, he is having difficulties changing his guild into a credit company because he can't find the right partner. That's where you come in with your great knack for business."
Ha ha ha.
There it is
again.
"What do you think? I'll help too, if you need me. If you're interested, I could call on him today and check the matter out."
Toda knew too much about business to become overly enthusiastic over all offers presented. After thinking a minute he said: "It's not a bad idea, but it wouldn't be so easy to make a success of something like that. To be frank, if someone else had come to me with the plan, I'd have turned it down."
Odd...if he
really "knew so much about business".
"Oi is absolutely all right, except for his age. There will be some legal problems, but since the investor will be the same person, they shouldn't amount to much. It's not as if you were starting a new company from scratch; you'll just be changing an old one."
This doesn't sound very good...
From what Kurikawa said, it appeared that the new firm could start operations immediately. Still Toda hesitated: "Are you sure this consumers' guild isn't in danger of going broke? I couldn't afford to take on anything unsound at this stage in the game."
Does anyone know what a "consumers' guild" even
is? "No. It's not making much, but I know for certain that it's not in the red, either," said Kurikawa.
Doth the lady protest too much?
"I'll talk to OI, see what he says, and call you again. Maybe you could arrange a meeting in a few days."
"All right," said Toda. "We can meet first. I'll decide whether to get involved in this after we've met."
A few days later, Toda met Mr. Oi, who explained to him the legal procedures for changing the present status to that of a credit cooperative. He then outlined the running of the company, listed the board of directors, and briefly related their duties. Toda was appalled at the inefficiency with which Oi managed things. But the very challenge of taking on such a company, which was not in fact in desperate financial straits
Methinks the lady
doth protest too much!
whetted his appetite for business.
So here we've got someone who knows
nothing about this type of business, who considers himself
qualified to judge whether it's solvent or not -
given that there were not audit provisions or reporting requirements for businesses like there are today. Why couldn't "Oi" have shown him falsified financial statements? Toda would have never known...
Toda accepted the offer of partnership that Oi made and set out immediately to take the necessary legal steps.
Notice that this credit cooperative is originally a
partnership but becomes solely Toda's as the narrative goes on. Even though it originally had its own board of directors,
who would have stayed in place if this had been a partnership bringing a new partner on board as described. What about
them? ...the new company, named the Toko Credit Cooperative, finally opened in the fall. The offices were on the first floor of Toda's Nihon Shogakkan
Remember, that building TODA
purchased.
and most of the staff, too, came from the publishing company. (pp. 190-193)
Why would anyone think that people who had worked for a
publishing company would know anything about how to run a
credit cooperative? The savvy businessperson, when embarking on a new venture, hires the most qualified people that can be found
in that type of business! NOT people from church, neighbors, relatives, and that guy he has drinks with at the bar most Thursday nights!
In contrast to the rising trends in Soka Gakkai affairs, the Nihon Shogakkan publishing company pursued a steady downhill course. The tight-money policy, overproduction in the publishing business, and finally, the rebirth of many of the popular magazines that had been discontinued during the war defeated small publishing houses. Toda's magazines, Ruby and Boys' Adventures, had done well at first, even when book sales were dropping.
That's because they were
PORN:
Take a look. This is
a page from Ruby.
But soon these two periodicals could no longer withstand competition from the big magazines. Ruby failed first, as large numbers of issues were returned unsold each month. Boys' Adventures managed somehow to stay in the black for a while. In August, 1949, Toda changed its name to The Boy of Japan in the hope of attracting buyers, but by autumn unsold copies had reached eighty percent of all issues printed.
Changing
the NAME and not
the CONTENT to fix a failing publication seems like a BAD business decision to me.
One chilly, cloudy fall morning, Toda assembled his employees in the main office and had Okumura, the accountant, give a full statement of the financial status of the firm. The figures that Okumura read in a dispirited voice left no room for doubt: the company was facing a severe crisis, with a deficit of millions of yen each month.
See? It was only loans from the bank that were keeping the company afloat.
Until that moment, many of these people had not opened their eyes to the true significance of the returned books, the unsold magazines, the unpaid bills, and the complaints about arrears from the printing and paper companies. For one thing, the glow of happiness they had experienced at the wonderfully successful fourth general meeting of Soka Gakkai still lingered.
This should illustrate the
danger of mixing religious zealotry with business. Religious zealotry makes people addled.
But more important, no one who worked for Toda could believe that he would not somehow pull them out of any preidcament. While realizing that the company was in trouble they nevertheless continued to trust that Toda would fix it all.
Oh, where, oh
where is
someone who can STAND UP??
"I have thrown this open to you becasue I trust you and need your suggestions," Toda said, addressing everyone present.
"Those figures must be wrong," came a voice from the back of the room.
"Figures don't lie," retorted Toda. "And Okumura arrived at these figures after long and very careful calculations. Human beings - especially people who lack strength - interpret things the way they want them to be.
"You're
weak, you worthless worms!"
Also,
preaching.
"When it is convenient, they can convince themselves that black is white. But cold, hard figures can't be treated that way: you can't make a credit out of a debit.
Actually,
that is very
easy to do! Debits are your
assets; credits are your
liabilities. You can use your "debits" as a down payment for something; then all you have left are the "credits" for what you are on the hook to pay back! Sheesh. Obviously, these ghostwriters weren't accountants or even Accounting Honors Students!
"Figures do nothing but illuminate the incontrovertible facts, and recognizing them frankly for what they are takes courage. The way a person acts on the basis of these frightening figures shows what kind of stuff he is made of. Facing the facts and using them is what is meant by true human strength."
Ugh. MORE preaching.
The employees believed for a moment that this remark was another one of Toda's introductions to a splendid solution. But from his solemn look and from what he said next they saw that the situation was grave.
That ol'
incompetent omniscient narrator again. SUCH terrible writing.
"I'm serious. If any of you have any ideas to offer, please speak up. These figures are not just correct, I suspect they are optimistic. They are still incomplete, for one thing. The number of returned magazines covers only the period ending three months ago. We can be fairly sure that when the rest of the figures are in the picture will be still darker. Since the situation is certain to get worse, we've got to put our minds to it now. Don't misunderstand me; I'm not blaming you. I only want your ideas and opinions."
THIS isn't "leadership". And it isn't the
clerks' job to figure out how to save the company. They weren't even
aware of the company's desperate situation.
Bewildered by the gloomy outlook of the company and by Toda's complete lack of his usual wit and humor, no one had anything to suggest.
"Well," said Toda, "it's not surprising that you have nothing to say on such short notice. I've been thinking about this for a long time, and I have only one idea. We must stop publishing. It may be that in the near future we can start again, but examining the pluses and minuses has convinced me that we must stop right now. If we do not, we will only be adding to our deficit, no matter how hard we work."
"Of course, I shall expect all of you to do your best in cleaning up the remaining affairs of the publishing company. We'll gradually start thinking about what future steps to take at the proper time. I hope you'll all take this bravely. Try not to be discouraged. Remember that I expect a lot from my disciples. Stopping publication is hard on us, but we won't be causing anyone else any trouble."
As they drifted aimlessly back to their desks, the employees of Nihon Shogakkan were in a state of semishock. The publishing company was going to close down. Toda's words of encouragement
THAT's what passed for "encouragement"??
had little effect. Many of the people thought most seriously about what they would do for a living if the company closed permanently. Still, all of them cared enough about Toda not to betray such feelings by so much as a look, let alone a word.
Because that's the Japanese way.
The news of the cessation of publishing activities came as a deep shock to Shin'ichi Yamamoto. Since joining Toda's firm in January, 1949, he had devoted himself to the magazine Boys' Adventures, which had gained some popularity. In May he had been appointed editor-in-chief of the magazine.
Recall that Ikeda had been employed at a
different publishing company before he came to work for Toda.
... A sense of accomplishment and happiness at his promotion inspired Yamamoto to devote all his time to the magazine, of which he was proud. His work brought him into closer contact with many small children.
WHAT??
He watched them fondly as they played pranks, laughed, cried over quarrels, or chewed their pencils as they puzzled over difficult problems in their textbooks. Often he felt an impulse to hold them in his arms. He felt that he would be willing to do anything for them.
What
IS this? This is so
weird! And remember, once Ikeda had children of his own, he turned into the world's foremost absentee father and deadbeat dad! Is
this supposed to gloss over THAT uncomfortable fact?
... Yamamoto's personality and and his ardor for his magazine won him friends among the artists and their families. From time to time, when writers or painters were out of sorts, the charm of Yamamoto's way triumphed over their bad humor and enabled them to finish on time tasks that otherwise might have been late. For the most thorny personal problems, Yamamoto called on the intercession of wives and other family members. He always made a good impression and won the affection and confidence of everyone with whom he came into contact. As he learned the many aspects of his work, day by day Yamamoto found it more interesting and worthwhile. Gradually, as he became proficient in his tasks, his self-confidence grew and fed his aspirations for the future.
Gaaah - my fingers just threw up all over the keyboard. Gimme a minute...
In the fall of 1949, he started working on ambitious plans for a special New Year issue of The Boy of Japan, as the magazine was by then called. Blah blah blah.
Because his hopes were high, the announcement of plans to halt publication came as an especially great blow to Yamamoto. It was almost as if an airplane that he had been piloting had suddenly lost power and started hurtling earthward. He saw with painful clarity that he could do nothing but resign
If
only! himself to the collapse of his beloved boys' magazine.
Yeesh, such overblown, puffy, florid prose. Yeah, we get it - reality sometimes bites. And having to
FACE reality can be painful, especially when one has
obviously been operating from a position of
delusion. But lay off the flowery phrasing a little...
Fortunately, a messenger boy from a printing company came in with the galley proofs of the December issue of the magazine. Remembering what Toda had said about not letting the halt of publications interfere with outstanding business, Yamamoto started thumbing through the pages of proof. As the smell of fresh printer's ink filled his nostrils, Yamamoto quickly became absorbed in his task, aware all the while that perhaps this was the last work he would ever do on the magazine to which he had devoted so much love and care. When he finished his proof, he looked at his watch and saw that he had read through the lunch hour. He was hungry.
Big boy's gotta
eat! Yamamoto started chewing on the proofs.
Deciding to go out for something to eat, he rose and moved toward the front door of the office.
What, they couldn't just write, "He got up and headed out" instead??
As Yamamoto passed the reception area, he caught a glimpse of Toda laughing happily over a game of Japanese chess that he was playing with a frequent visitor to the company.
"What a man!" thought Yamamoto.
There he sat playing a game as if nothing was wrong, when only this morning he had announced that the company was about to collapse. (pp. 194-199)
While the rest of Toda's employees suffered under the paralyzing effects of the bad news, Yamamoto set briskly about his afternoon errands. First, he had to call on an artist to pay for some work. Then he had to pick up the plate for an ink drawing for the December issue of The Boy of Japan.
The artist's house was cold, bleak, and disorderly; but the man had apparently been eagerly awaiting Yamamoto's visit. ...Almost before he was aware of it, Yamamoto was talking about Nichiren Shoshu and the philosophy of Nichiren Daishonin. He did not intend to try and convert the artist.
SUUUURE he didn't...
In fact, he was still not actually talking with that aim in mind. But the painter became very interested. Though he had no knowledge of Buddhism, what Yamamoto told him fired his imagination. Before they parted, the painter said he would like to discuss the matter more fully some other time. Yamamoto, after promising to contact him again soon, went out into the twilight. (pp. 201-202)
...and that's the last we ever hear of this artist/painter! I suspect this vignette was inserted for the sole purpose of making it appear that Ikeda had ever
attempted shakubuku, even inadvertently. Because Ikeda has never shakubukued
ANYONE! Not ONE of those "world leaders" Ikeda has
paid for a photo-op with held DIALOGUES with ever converted...
SENSEIFAIL!! The day the last issue of The Boy of Japan - the December issue - came off the press, the weather was clear and bright outside the Kanda offices of Nihon Shogakkan. Inside, a gloomy silence reigned. As Shin'ichi Yamamoto sat caressingly reading the final product of his work
eeeewwwwwwww others in the office were whispering among themselves about where they would go to work and what they would do when the company finally collapsed, which it was certain to do within a matter of days.
As a matter of fact, on the very next day, Toda called his staff together to announce the closing of the publishing company and, on a more hopeful note, to explain the nature and policies of the new credit cooperative. All members of the publishing staff who wished to remain were automatically put on the payroll of the credit company as soon as Shogakkan was officially declared closed. Toda had sensed the dissatisfaction and insecurity of his staff members and he held this meeting of explanation in an attempt to calm fears.
Ugh. SUCH awkward writing.
While relating stories of his many years of management experience and the successes and failures he had lived through, he illustrated his points by referring to the basic principles of both communism and capitalism. He explained what a credit cooperative is
We were
just told that same information only a few sentences ago...
and went on to relate why he had decided to undertake this kind of enterprise, showing wherein he saw hope for its future development and growth.
Blah blah blah. Lecture, preach, lecture. Ugh.
Yamamoto realized that much of what Toda said was not being sympathetically received by members of the organization who were already planning to quit at the earliest chance.
Why not
yesterday? Or
right NOW if they truly had such intent?
Nonetheless, he was deeply moved by the speech, especially when Toda concluded with: "All business enterprises are subject to rises and falls. Economics, like all other things, has its own rules, which cannot be ignored. Once those rules are understood, it is effort, enthusiasm, and patience that determine the success or failure of a company.
Wow - pretty
OBLIVIOUS to be lecturing/preaching at his staff like this when his
OWN company has just failed. No self-awareness at ALL, that Toda!
Meanwhile, Ikeda: "What a man!"
"Hard work is the same in all companies, big and small. As far as my experience teaches, as long as people are not afraid of hard work, even though things may sometimes seem desperate, a way will always be found."
Before adjourning the meeting, Toda instructed Okumura to divide all cash on hand equally and to distribute it among his employees as part of their salaries. None of them ever knew how valuable that money could have been to the firm itself. (p. 203-204)
Another for our #ThatHappened files. The biz is supposedly insolvent, can't pay its bills, is
months behind in its bills, yet they have money to pay "an artist"
and to hand out as a lovely parting gift for the staff who are just transferring directly over to the new credit cooperative. WHY would he give them
the business' money when he'd
already given them new jobs to slide right on over into?? Without even a
day's loss of pay?? THAT's not competent management.
This is the end of 1949.
What they're also not coming right out and stating plainly is that Toda started up a lending operation, and that he lent money to desperate people as incentive to join his Soka Gakkai.
From around the spring of 1950, the performance of Toda's credit association fell into decline and its business operations were suspended. In August, Toda announced he was stepping down from his position as general director of the Soka Gakkai in order to prevent his business problems from negatively impacting the organization. Source
BOY,
THAT ship went down fast! Didn't even make it out of the harbor!
Notice that Ikeda started working for Toda in early 1949. There are reports that Ikeda was involved in collections. Notice that, once Ikeda got involved, Toda became more successful, though it's typically couched in terms of how many more families they convinced to convert. One can only wonder how much of this was because these families were on the hook to Toda because they owed him money. This type of private lending was probably completely unregulated as well - along the lines of the "payday loans" businesses that charge astronomical interest rates and get people caught up in a cycle where they can never pay back their debts and must be constantly borrowing more and more and more. There's a whole "honor code" in Japanese culture that we gaijin have no way of understanding - Japanese people will often go to great lengths and do all sorts of unimaginable stuff just to avoid "losing face" and because they owe someone else. Source
Is it possible that Toda got into one of the prison gangs for a lot of money while he was incarcerated and had to quick pay off some deadly debts? I've seen "Drive" and "Shot Caller" - I know how that works. Pretty quick to drive the credit cooperative straight into the ground,
given that he was just a
partner AND there was supposed to be a board of directors watching over the operations! Whatever happened to the board and Oi?? See how it's suddenly ALL Toda's?
The best laid PLANs of mice and men often go awry.
Welcome back to another effortpost by me generally on the developing arms race in East Asia, this time covering the People's Liberation Army Navy, hereafter referred to as the "PLAN", and its massive growth... and... mostly, well, its massive growth. What that means is mostly covered in other posts about how other countries are responding to it. The why is a bit difficult because, well, China is not well known for open debate, or open anything, really, which will turn up repeatedly.
- What you [might] need to know about South Korea's ludicrous arms buildup
- We shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches.... uh, what do we do after that again?: The Perilous Defensive Position of Taiwan
- "You've hit another cargo ship? The Problems with the US Navy: Not all of them begin with "Seven" and end with "th Fleet"."
- Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?
- Biden's New START and modern nuclear war
- First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
- Boned: Problems in the US Air [and space!] Force
- --Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
- --Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
- --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
- --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
- Conclusion?
Glossary: PLA = People's Liberation Army = the armed forces of the People's Republic of China, or China
PLAN = People's Liberation Army Navy = the naval forces of the PLA
PLANAF = People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force = the air force of the navy of the PLA
Ashm = Anti-ship missile, cruise missile unless specifically described as otherwise--there's only one anti-ship ballistic missile in existence and its efficacy and whether or not it functions is questionable
CIWS = close-in weapons system, like the Phalanx gun or Goalkeeper
VLS = vertical launch system for missiles
AEGIS = Aegis Combat System if described specifically in that context, a US naval warfare system, but we'll usually be talking about "Chinese AEGIS", which is a nomiker used by the Chinese media in particular comparing the Type 346 radar to the AN-SPY family, with which it shares numerous technical characteristics--but how comparable the "Chinese AEGIS" system is to what the US uses is a complete unknown.
SAM = Surface-to-air missile, in this case usually a S-300 derivative
First Island Chain = The islands, stretching from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, which keep China inside its littoral seas much as the GIUK [Greenland-Iceland-UK] gap has kept various continental powers out of the Atlantic.
Some PLAN equipment you might see described--the nomenclature is confusing and a relic of the cultural revolution, and as a result China now has more Types than the British.
Type 003 = China's new conventionally powered supercarriers, currently under construction
Type 002 = China's first truly "operational" carrier
Type 001 = China's first carrier, built on a Soviet hull purchased from Ukraine ostensibly to make a floating casino
Type 055 = Guided-missile cruiser, though generally called a destroyer it's probably more descriptively labeled a cruiser
Type 052D = Guided-missile destroyer using "Chinese AEGIS"
Type 052/051B/052B/052C = the gradual progression of evolving Chinese naval tech, largely built as practice/demo ships like the Type 001. Some of the earlier ones are steam-powered but by the Type 052C you have something almost as advanced as the Type 052D, albeit with turbine problems
Type 054A = the standard modern frigate of the PLAN
Type 053[anything] = old PLAN frigates
Type 096 = China's newest SSBN class, under construction
Type 094 = China's first functional SSBN class, very noisy
Type 092 = China's first "SSBN", believed to have never left port with an actual nuke on board
Type 095 = China's newest SSN class, under construction
Type 093 = China's current SSN class, noisy
Type 091 = China's first SSN class, dumb dumb dumb and is at a 1950s tech level
Type 039[A] = China's new SSK class
Kilo = China's older SSK class, imported from Russia
Sovremenny = China's first capable anti-air destroyers, imported from Russia
1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe
The last time we've seen something like this was in the late 19th century. After the First World War shipbuilding was restricted by the landmark Washington Naval Treaty, one of the first great arms control treaties, and during the Cold War the Soviet Union never really had any hopes of surpassing American naval power. China, however, seems intent on replacing the US as the world's dominant naval power, or at least building a force that can stop the US Navy, even combined with the forces of Japan and other regional allies.
The nations in question, of course, in the last naval arms race, were the United Kingdom and a newly-unified Germany. Germany never reached the level of the UK, but seriously threatened it. Previously the UK had maintained a policy of having more ships than the next two largest fleets combined, but this was no longer possible, and the UK legitimately was fearful for its naval supremacy. It didn't last too long in the end--under a decade--and a resumption was foiled by first a world war and then the Washington Naval Treaty. The impact of the arms race, though, was massive. It set Germany and the UK at odds with each other, it resulted in a general buildup of warships pretty much everywhere [South America was, believe it or not, one of the biggest offenders there], established Germany for a time as the world's second naval power, having eclipsed both France and Russia and turning a small coastal defense navy into something that was able to defeat the Royal Navy itself, though never comprehensively enough to change the course of the first world war.
China dwells in a much different situation than Germany did at the turn of the last century, so we can only extend the analogy so far--substituting in Japan for the UK, India for Russia, and so on is possible but not, in my view, educational. However, we can see many of the same elements playing in here. China seems intent on replacing the US as a dominant power, or at least as regional hegemon--the ancient tributary system seems to lie fairly heavily on Chinese minds--and in order to do that, it must be able to have some degree of power projection and the capability to deny the US Navy access to areas within the first island chain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful that quest will be. Much as with the dreadnought battleships, I wouldn't be surprised if we never actually do find out if most of the shiny naval toys people have built actually work. But their mere existence shows the mutual hostility developing in the region and demonstrates the size of the Chinese threat.
Another lesson learned here is that China, like Germany, may not develop a naval force capable of defeating the US comprehensively, but only partially, and that one of the powers--in this case, China--might be pressured to strike first before the US Navy can close the gap. That ~2030 gap I talked about in my last post is, I think, an especially vulnerable point, because China may look at a degraded, but rejuvenating US Navy, then at their own capable forces, and decide to strike then in Taiwan and the South China Sea, only to back down when the US Navy again eclipses them. Whether or not that will happen, we will see--but I find it a very dangerous and perhaps likely possibility.
2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago
The PLAN has undergone an absolutely stunning evolution in the past two decades. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis the US could intimidate China with a pair of aircraft carrier strike groups and China could do pretty much nothing about it. Now the US is afraid of sending anything more than a destroyer through the strait.
Twenty years ago, the PLAN was a bit of a joke. Even Taiwan figured it could hold the seas against the PLAN. It consisted of a few tens of outdated coastal-defense frigates, some Soviet-era diesel-electric subs, and a large number of unsophisticated missile craft. The pride of the Chinese fleet were a handful of destroyers assembled using cobbled-together Western technology--copied French missiles, American gas turbines, the lot. According to American accounts at the time, the instructions for the equipment hadn't even been translated. The most advanced ship in the fleet used steampower. There were nuclear submarines, but of 1950s quality. Of particular note was the fact that the Chinese fleet had
no area air defense capabilities--their premier surface-to-air-missile was an unlicensed knockoff of the French Crotale, and couldn't shoot anything outside of visual range, at high altitudes, or really doing anything more sophisticated than trying to kill their ships with low-altitude dumb bombing runs.
In the past twenty years, however, the PLAN has, much like the German Navy towards the end of the 19th century, gone from an afterthought to the world's second most powerful force. It began, as modern China's military capabilities almost all began, with the looting of the former Soviet Union for naval technology. While Soviet naval tech was generally lacking, it was much better than anything else China could get its hands on after the arms embargo placed on it in the 1990s by the US and Europe in response to Tienanmen and the end of the Cold War. China bought Soviet diesel submarines, Soviet air-defense destroyers, and Soviet aircraft carriers, which it promptly left lying around [and turned one of them into a theme park]. This was combined with copies of various pieces of Western, mostly European, technology for everything from sonars to surface-to-air missiles. China then began developing its first modern indigenous surface combatants, the Type 052C, but there were still problems. The engines were Ukrainian and had reliability trouble, the gun jammed, there was no VLS.
It is really in the last ten years that things have begun to move extremely quickly, and even only in the latter portion of the decade. In 2012 the Type 001
Liaoning entered service, and although it remains more of a training ship than an operational vessel, and is held back by a poor carrier aircraft, the mere fact that China "built" a carrier was a surprise to many. In 2014 the first Type 052D destroyer came online. It had learned the lessons from the Type 052C, and in just the last six years at least ten have entered service, with a class size of about 23 expected. This rapid expansion is what has frightened competing navies the most--in a little over a decade, the PLAN is constructing more destroyers than the British, French, and Australian navies have in service combined. It is also building the Type 055, which has generally been called a "destroyer" despite being more aptly described as a cruiser in line with the Ticonderoga-class. China has also built 30 modern frigates in the past decade, which has also swelled its numbers, along with numerous smaller corvettes, submarines, and so on.
This is why the PLAN has become such an object of concern. While it cannot challenge the US Navy yet, at least outside its littoral zones, the decline of the USN and rapid expansion of the PLAN means that it is a serious threat. And the speed at which it has developed has made many fearful. As recently as 2010, the idea of China operating an aircraft carrier or modern destroyers seemed distant, possibly preposterous. Now China speaks openly of having a six-carrier fleet in the 2030s, although, as with many of China's plans to operate full US-replicated tech and doctrine, these may have somewhat caved to realism. China is mighty, but it has already done the easy part--the last part is much harder, in economics and in military matters. Building the software, the institutional knowledge, the hardware to compete with the US Navy will prove difficult.
3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines
Submarines are one of the PLAN's weak spots, particularly nuclear submarines. China is, however, making some fairly rapid advances in this area.
Their nuclear submarine program has been considered a bit of a joke for some time. In the late 1950s when all the cool
kids great powers were getting nuclear submarines, China decided [or at least Mao did] that China needed nuclear submarines too. About
16 years later, the product of this effort finally emerged as the Type 091 submarine. Based on 1950s technology, with poor radiation shielding and basically nothing done in the name of noise reduction, and not even a teardrop hull, the Type 091 was probably more of a threat to the sailors who were on it than anyone else, except maybe the two Tench-class submarines that Taiwan operates, which use 1940s technology and are the world's longest-serving submarines, though they're mostly used for training nowadays. Even then, my money would be on the Tench despite the upgrades the PLAN has made to the Type 091. There's only so much you can do to put lipstick on a pig.
China also produced an SSBN, the Type 092, which was probably the only submarine more useless than the Type 091. About the only useful thing it did for the PLAN was that it served as a test platform for SLBM launches. Reports suggest that the Type 092 is the noisiest SSBN ever made, and is thought to have only ever undertaken a single patrol. It stayed at port for so long that it was thought to have sunk in an accident. And the experience turned the PLAN off from building SSBNs for over twenty years, until the Type 094 came online in 2007.
More recent submarines are growing in capability, though. The Type 094
is not the noisiest SSBN ever made, and may not even be the noisiest in current service--that honor going to the Delta III operated by the Russian Navy, which uses 1970s technology, and, which, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, is about as noisy as the Type 094. The Type 093 is also moderately capable--it actually functions and can fire anti-ship missiles. However, the Type 093 is still considered only comparable to the Soviet Victor III class, again using 1970s technology. Future submarines have not yet been seen, but expectations are that China will make another step forward to late 1980s or early 1990s tech levels, producing something on par with the Los Angeles or Akula for the first time.
China also operates a fairly capable fleet of coastal diesel-electric submarines. While some are quite old--the Type 035--most are pretty average for the global submarine force, a mix of Kilos and domestic AIP designs. The large number of boats in operation and their anti-ship missile capability means that these should be considered a real threat, at least in the littoral waters near to China, but they aren't decisive by any means, especially since China is facing off against such threats as Japan's
Soryu class, probably the most advanced diesel-electric sub in existence.
In conclusion, the PLAN is still pretty weak on the submarine front--weaker here than on anything but its carrier force, but its capabilities are advancing rapidly and should not be underestimated.
4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants
The surface fleet is definitely the most impressive and capable portion of the PLAN, no questions about it. China once had a fleet consisting mostly of coastal frigates and missile boats. As recently as 2000, its fleet had no real area-air-defense destroyers, and no SAMs that could operate outside visual range. Now, though, the PLAN operates tens of advanced guided-missile destroyers, advanced frigates, and still retains a large number of small, stealthy missile boats.
The major focus of Chinese warships appears to be on anti-air, with anti-surface being a somewhat secondary concern for all but the smallest vessels. This makes sense when you realize that the primary focus is, at least for the moment, on using land-based aircraft to strike against hostile fleet formations using long-range anti-ship missiles, in a very Soviet sort of way--"Backfire raids" using long-range land-based aircraft with anti-ship missiles were one of the US Navy's major concerns during the Cold War, and the very reason for the F-14's existence along with the AIM-54 Phoenix it carried. However, China has been developing anti-surface capabilities as well using ashms and land-attack cruise missiles [generally the same thing, actually]. Since China has finally developed a VLS system that allows it to use the same launcher for multiple missiles, its most recent ships have become more versatile in that role.
How effective these ships are at that task is, however, a relatively open question. Their radars at least seem to quite sophisticated, using flat-panel AESA, and have been dubbed "Chinese AEGIS" by the
highly reliable Chinese domestic media. The basic platform their surface-to-air missiles are based on also seems to be fairly capable--the HQ-9 is an S-300 derivative, a respectable SAM system though, again, how capable it is against opponents in an active electronic warfare environment is questionable, and it has basically no capabilities against stealth aircraft like the F-35 as far as anyone knows. The efficacy of their CIWS, again, is open to question. Really this is true of everything about the modern PLAN, and PLA in general. The PLA is secretive, has not exported most of its hardware, and has developed largely independently of foreign militaries, though it is definitely influenced by them. Now that the PLAN has moved away from simply copying foreign hardware and patching it together, its capabilities are much harder to discern.
However, they should be taken as a very real threat, and not written off. My guess would be that their warships are about as capable as most of their non-American counterparts, save those equipped with AEGIS, but that's all my guess is---a guess.
5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers
The PLAN currently has two carriers in service, and two more known to be under construction, and most suspect that it will build several more. However, at the moment, the PLAN's carrier force is largely a paper tiger, designed around training. The first carrier, the Type 001, basically was a "how do you build a carrier" kit bought from Russia, possibly by accident--the "fully functional"
Minsk ended up as a theme park, believe it or not. The hull was purchased from Ukraine and then completed in China years later. It is also believed that the PLAN may have learned some things about aircraft carriers from the HMAS Melbourne, which was sold to a Chinese firm for scrapping--rumor has it the PLAN had no clue this had happened and then had a field day looking at all the stuff that hadn't been taken out. This was back in the old days when nobody could imagine that China would have an aircraft carrier. The Type 002, however, is built from scratch, but isn't particularly capable especially as it's a ski-jump carrier, leaving the Type 003 the first carrier which will prove actually useful.
The main thing holding China's carrier fleet back, though, is a lack of a suitable aircraft. Originally China was considering purchasing Su-33s from Russia, hardly a good carrier-based aircraft but functional, but after Russia discovered that China had been mucking about building a Su-27 derivative without asking the deal fell through [China tells a different story, saying that Russia demanded exorbitant amounts to reopen production which it was unwilling to pay for a nearly obsolete aircraft]. As a result China operates the J-15 as its naval fighter, with... less than stellar results. It's extremely heavy, and, if it takes off from the carrier, has minimal range if carrying anything at all--it can't take more than two short range air to air missiles into the sky to fight enemy aircraft. However, the J-15 isn't really intended for combat service--it's intended to teach China how to run carriers, and it seems to work well enough for that task, aside from the
multiple fatal crashes. There is, however, thought to be a new carrier fighter in the pipeline--most say the J-31/FC-31, which has reduced RCS and a number of carrier-unique features, is being pitched as a carrier-based aircraft and will serve as China's carrier fighter in the future. China also lacks any fixed wing carrier-based airborne early warning, which could prove troublesome--a lack of AEW means that its view is limited by the horizon--and has no resupply aircraft like the C-2 Greyhound. As a result, for the moment at least, China lacks an effective carrier force, but it is likely to continue developing rapidly in the next decade and become a fairly substantial threat. Remember that as recently as 2010, a Chinese aircraft carrier seemed preposterous to many people, and now they have two.
6. Some attention to land-based aircraft
Land-based aircraft as a naval weapon are not generally used by the US, which has never had a reason to develop them as a doctrinal focus. Sure, you could potentially envision them as being used, and there even were situations where they were utilized, but it just wasn't generally a priority or how things were done. For China, though, taking influence from the Soviets, and lying on littoral seas with hostile powers in the First Island Chain, land-based aircraft and missiles are a key part of doctrine. Although this is often viewed as a new thing, called A2/AD [anti access/area denial], it's really the result of a long historical evolution of naval power, probably most refined by the Soviet Union. As a result, land-based naval aviation plays an important role, firing anti-ship missiles at standoff distances at enemy vessels, and shore-based launchers of anti-ship missiles are also an important weapon. The combination of these systems means that venturing within China's littoral seas is a dangerous proposition during war, and some waters, like those of the Taiwan Strait, are effectively considered closed at this point in the event of hostilities breaking out. For this reason air superiority is also important in this sort of naval warfare, as if either side gains air superiority it can pummel its opponents with air-launched anti-ship missiles. China's capabilities in this area are sophisticated and should not be underestimated, but they are unlikely to go through a rapid period of growth like the PLAN's fleet.
And a brief note dedicated entirely to the DF-21D "Carrier killer" that the PLA likes to show off. It's a pretty impressive capability, on paper, using a ballistic missile to hit a carrier. The CEP [circular error probable] means that it could even happen, presuming that an aircraft carrier was good enough to sit in one place, not moving, long enough to be detected by China. Aircraft carriers look big, but the seas are huge, and they're surprisingly hard to find. They also move quite fast, in excess of of 35mph/55kph, and thus by the time the ballistic missile has launched it might well be out of range given the fact that ballistic missiles are not particularly known for their maneuverability in terminal stages, at least not in the realm of miles. The DF-21D is not a particular threat to the modern aircraft carrier. It could potentially be one if it evolves into a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, but that's a whole additional can of worms, that I might address a different day.
7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?
Unfortunately the PLAN is not exactly the most open of navies, as I've repeatedly mentioned. There are no public debates over acquisitions programs, no big fleet shape plans, relatively little detail.
However, a few things are fairly sure bets or publicly announced.
China has repeatedly announced plans to build a six-carrier force, including the Type 001 and Type 002, but also a pair of Type 003 [already under construction] conventionally powered supercarriers and a pair of Type 004 nuclear powered supercarriers. However, it seems that the Type 004 is currently on hold. Why, exactly, is unclear, but it seems to be technical difficulties, which are not particularly surprising given that China's experience with nuclear maritime propulsion seem to be rather limited and have had poor results in their submarine fleet. The costs were also expected to be too high--China does not have an unlimited quantity of money, despite what it may flaunt, and nuclear carriers are expensive to develop especially given that China has not built a nuclear-powered surface ship before.
A new carrier-based fighter is almost certainly in the cards because the J-15 is pretty much useless. The FC-31 seems by far the most likely candidate but it could be another aircraft we haven't seen yet. The addition of this aircraft will greatly improve the PLAN's capabilities.
China also has two Type 075 amphibious assault ships/LHDs under construction, and I would expect this class to be much more prolific. These ships are much more affordable than the full carriers, and focus on areas in which China is particularly concerned--amphibious assaults, say, on islands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan, and anti-submarine warfare, which is of particular importance given that submarines cannot be easily halted with land-based anti-ship missiles and air-launched cruise missiles provided for in their area denial doctrine--submarines are one of the few things that can slip through that net.
The surface combatant fleet is likely to continue growing, but I am not sure if it will swell much beyond the ~23 Type 052D ships planned and the 8 Type 055s. We're likely to see the retirement of the classes preceding the Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054 frigate, and they may be offloaded to Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Pakistan--there is substantial precedent here, and it seems that China is interested in expanding the naval capabilities of its partners around India.
The submarine fleet is likely to see rapid expansion
if the PLAN is satisfied with the Type 095 and Type 096 classes, and we're likely to see more diesel-electric subs built as well. Submarines are generally quite good at fighting submarines and conducting area-denial missions, and the large and capable subsurface forces of Japan, Korea, and the United States means that this has to be an area the PLAN invests more in--and the fact that several Southeast Asian nations are also looking at acquiring submarines makes the issue more pressing.
8. Conclusion
China has in the past decade gone from a third-rate navy to perhaps the greatest threat the US Navy has faced since the Second World War. This has significant geopolitical implications, and has resulted in neighbors scrambling to overhaul their naval forces. The growth of the PLAN means that the US can no longer easily defend Taiwan or the South China Sea, or any of China's littoral waters. This, more than anything else, is what has everyone scrambling in the US talking about "great-power competition" because denying access to the US Navy and working on power projection, an inherently naval thing, is essentially a clear sign that China is looking to directly compete with the United States. Underestimate the PLAN at your own peril.
I hope to have more detail and citations in future posts, but unfortunately the PLAN is very secretive [yes, I've said that fifty times already] and this is a pretty big topic to discuss without going into details about all sorts of naval tidbits. Thanks for reading the fourth post in what I hope will be a fairly substantial series, probably around ~12 posts.
9. Citations
James Holmes, "The Danger Zone In Naval Arms Races" USNI, Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization Hans Kristensen, China's Noisy Nuclear Submarines Eric Wertheim, China's Type 052D Destroyer is a potent adversary Robert Farley, Let's Talk About The Chinese Navy's Type 055 Destroyer Ryan Pickrell, Chinese fighter jet holding China back as it builds carrier fleet Look, much more here is based on loose speculation, more unreliable sources, and stuff I've picked up over the years, because public info is limited. So take everything I say with a grain of salt, but understand that it's the best information
I know of.
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